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November 13, 2012

The Asian Century will switch from 'quantity' of growth to quality

Will China perform as many experts say it will" Here is the journal of a recent trip to asia by a Goldman Sacks leader"
In the first decade of the Asian Century, much of the story has in effect been about the 'quantity' of growth rather than the quality and sustainability.
This is especially true with respect to China as I shall discuss in more detail, but also for India, Indonesia and others (if not, of course, in Japan where it has been and remains the absence of either). I introduce the aspects of my trip in this context because I think part of the challenge right now is that markets had become used to the drug of the quantity of growth in the region.
And importantly, in terms of our expectations, we never were and are still not, assuming that the same intensity of nominal and real GDP growth will continue.
For this decade, 2011-2020, for example, we are assuming that China will grow on average by 7.1%, down from 10.5% the last decade, and India 6.5% down from 7.5%. We are expecting the N-11 countries to see their real GDP accelerate to around 5.3% from 4.2%, but this would not be powerful enough to offset the softer Chinese and Indian growth in aggregate.
Let me re-emphasize that if China, India and the Asian N-11 countries achieve what we assume, their share of global GDP will rise sharply and the world will probably grow faster than previous decades, despite their softer growth rates.
 Jacoline Loewen   See Jacoline on BNN, The Pitch  Author of Money Magnet Director, Crosbie Co.
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