Oh, Canada

At school, American friends made a hobby of slagging Canada.  Pretty standard.  "Canadians are too polite", "Canadians are boring".  Luckily, "The Man Everyone Loved to Hate" was President of the U.S. at the time and the conversations were short.  We've all heard the swipes, some in Canada would agree with them, very politely and boring-ly, though despite our unflappable humility, we do love to have our skirts fanned from time to time.  

Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International is apparently taking a serious run at a Governor General's Award this year, despite the fact he's American.  Last week he published a column in Newsweek applauding Canada's virtues.  Mr. Zakaria writes in his article "Worthwhile Canadian Initiative", Canadians should be proud of the "common sense" and the capitalization rates of our banking system, which is getting recognition the world over.  Not exactly riveting stuff, but Switzerland must be hating us.

Canada is the only country in the industrialized world that has not faced a bank failure or calls for bailouts and government intervention.  The reason for this is our conservative, staid, risk-averse attitudes, the fodder of a-many jabs.  Our banks have been regulated to have far higher capitalization rates than the rest of the world.  Typically, our banks are leveraged 18 to 1 ($18 of debt for every $1 in the savings account), whereas the Americans are generally 26 to 1 and the European banks are a staggering 61 to 1.  Ooh la la.  Needless to say, this functions as a lot of profit in boom times, and, when the boom turns to bust the bank goes bursting and a Frenchman has one less half-caf, triple, Grande, three pumps sugar-free-vanilla, soy, no foam, 180 degree cappucino. 

Apparently, TD is brimming with pride these days.  They have gone from the backbenches of North American corporate obscurity, having been the 15th largest bank in N.A., to a major player, becoming North Americas 5th largest bank.

Mr. Zakari goes on to sing the praises of our 'responsible' natures when it comes to our fiscal policy.  We have been very good beavers and have stored up a lot of nuts through fiscal surpluses over the past decade to deal with the current financial crisis with a stable and sober approach. The Harvard PhD also likes our immigration program, our accountable mortgage policies, and our healthy life-expectancies.  Stop it, I'm blushing.

After having read this, I looked again at the the first line of the article.  It reads, "The legendary editor of The New Republic, Michael Kinsley, once held a "Boring Headline Contest" and decided that the winner was "Worthwhile Canadian Initiative".  This, for me, encapsulated much of the torn pride I felt throughout the article.  Though disguised as complements, we Canadians, can never escape the love affair foreigners have with taking a few jabs at our responsible, risk averse, common sensical, conservative selves.  Characteristics of good bankers it seems.

Business owners like the long view

"One of the reasons business owners are preferring private equity," says Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet, "Is they appreciate that the investors go in for five years. It sure feels better than the short term view of shareholders in the public market who bale as soon as they see anything slightly off."
Long term trends are difficult to remember for investors in public markets.
This is an interesting chart as you can see we are still 5% above the trend line. Yet the public market ignored job loss information that came out last week, and ended up higher by Friday probably due to wishful thinking.
Private equity is in stark contrast to this short term thinking demonstrated in the public markets. Five years with a company before taking back the money is the shared goal. Think how this long term approach by shareholders helps business owners during these times.
One of the top fund managers at my secret handshake club said that these are historic times and our children will read about them. Now that is long term thinking.

Mining likes investing in Africa

Africa ain't for the faint hearted. Despite the harsh environment, and clash of cultures, Canadian mining companies are making huge advances.
The time when Canada's presence on the African continent was primarily characterised by numerous missionaries and food donations is well and truly over! In countries such as Congo, Mali and Tanzania, when it is learned that you are from Canada, Denis Tougas says you are immediately asked if you work for the ‘mining’, a perception entirely consistent with reality.
Canada is now dominant - in fact, some say superpower - in the African mining sector, a position the country intends to maintain and develop using all means at its disposal.The salient presence of Canadian mining is relatively new in Africa and is rooted principally in the programmes of liberalisation of the sector from the early 1990s. These programmes have been driven by the World Bank, which from 1992
(1) had begun defining the extractive sector as the main engine of development for many countries.
(2) The privatisation of state enterprise – promoted as a means of encouraging the entry of foreign investment – has opened the door to foreign companies. At the head of this development, especially with regard to the smaller exploration companies known as ‘juniors’, are Canadian companies. These companies have an immense commercial presence in Canada: of the 1,223 mining companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the largest in the country, more than 1,000 are juniors!
(3)A HUGE EXPANSION
Currently, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources Canada (NRC), only the Republic of South Africa, with over 35% of assets and investments, is just ahead of Canada in the African mining industry. But with South Africa’s assets concentrated on its own territory, Canada dominates the rest of the continent.The data compiled by the NRC demonstrates the speed with which the value of Canadian mining assets in Africa has grown over the last twenty years: at US$ 233 million in 1989, this figure grew to $635 million in 1995, and $2.8 billion in 2001, growing further to $6.08 billion in 2005, and $14.7 billion in 2007.(4) This total value is estimated to reach $21 billion by 2010.
Read more...
Thank you to Michael Power for the referral to this article.

Does mean marketing grab market share?

German Engineering, Swiss Innovation, American Nothing.

Ouchy!

This is an advertisement used by Daimler and is it mean? It's good business. Competitive companies get on with growing their business. Brand America is tarnished and Mercedes is using the anti-American sentiment to grow their market share.

Does an experienced partner win private equity more?

The quality of your partner counts big time. In the case of entrepreneurs seeking capital from Venture Capitalists, nothing helps more than having a partner with past success.

Venture-backed firms tend to cluster in industries. Those that are most common for venture capitalists to fund are Internet and software, biotechnology, and telecommunications. SJ Gibson of Harvard Business School recently completed a study on these industries to measure who gets financing and who tends to be those who have had a successful start-up.

Here's an excerpt:
Q: Was there anything in your findings that surprised you?
A: The size of the effect of past success was surprising. We know that there was likely to be some degree of performance persistence, but the magnitude was quite striking.
Q: Given the current economic conditions, do you have any advice for entrepreneurs who are considering launching a new venture at this time?
A: Certainly one lesson that emerges from our analysis is to find an experienced (and successful) partner! Given the very difficult investment conditions, venture investors are paring back their portfolios and are hesitant to make new commitments. To get serious consideration, the more that you can do to seem like a "sure thing," the better off you are.
More generally, being as careful as you can be with resources, and flexible.

Read more here...

The Big Mac Index

Another way of looking at prices and inflation with regard to different countries/regions is to consider the concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).
Definition from Wikipedia:

"The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory uses the long-term equilibrium exchange rate of two currencies to equalize their purchasing power. Developed by Gustav Cassel in 1920, it is based on the law of one price: the theory states that, in ideally efficient markets, identical goods should have only one price."
A popular derivative of the PPP concept is the Big Mac Index, developed by The Economist Magazine. The Index is based on the notion that a dollar should buy the same amount in all countries and that in the long run; the exchange rate between two countries should move towards PPP rate and hence moves the prices of the same goods for each country towards equilibrium.
The Economist just published the latest Big Mac Index on January 22nd:

Based on the latest findings, Switzerland has the most overvalued currency whereas the currencies of South Africa, China and Russia (as part of the industrialized nations) are the most undervalued in relation to the US Dollar. Canada looks strong.

Think of the US mortgage and credit market as a giant pyramid scheme. The people closer to the top of the pyramid usually get out relatively unscathed. But the investor closer to the bottom of the pyramid end up with nothing.
That would explain why US markets faired relatively better than India, China and other countries of the developing world who seemingly ended up lower down the chain in this massive pyramid scheme.
Here's a link to George Soros discussing his trading philosophy and how he did so well in 2008 relative to the rest of the world - drink your strong coffee before you read it.

David Rubenstein at Davos

Davos has a more subdued David Rubenstein of Carlyle discussing the future of private equity. Read more at Carried Interest blog.

Will inflation hit private equity?

This is a copy of an old 10 Billion Mark coupon.
Ponder this extraordinary piece of paper (which is obviously no longer is in circulation). Use it as a reminder of the hyper-inflation of the 1920s in Germany. In those days, these sums were the cost of daily groceries.
Certain early childhood experiences stay with you forever and some of these can impact the way you look at money and finances. In my case, I've always been weary about the hidden loss of value from inflation due to my upbringing in Zambia and Zimbabwe. So, yes, the 1920s were very different times which hopefully never come back. But with the current economic climate, particularly in the epicenter of leverage and deficit spending i.e. US government and households, we should never loose sight of the danger of inflation.
Look no further than Zimbabwe where in 2008, a loaf of bread cost 1.6 trillion Zimbabwe Dollars. In short, various prices have come down and quite rightly so are now at much more realistic levels, but we should fear inflation much more than deflation.
Private equity has cash but is not coming into the market at valuations business owners want. This dance will continue for 2009.

Where Do I Get Money?

Money is the grease the helps businesses operate; it also allows a company to grow. Entrepreneurs who decide that they want to get wealthy put aside their egos and surround themselves with experts. They also learn what makes others put money into their companies.
"CYBF is a terrific place for young entrepreneurs to begin their journey," says Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet. "CYBF will take entrepreneurs through the steps to managing their money and also help out with a mentor."
Listen to more on the radio show Small Business, Big Ideas.

Now You're Talking, Stephen

Hundreds of aspiring young entrepreneurs will be able to contribute quickly to Canada’s economic recovery as a result of a $10 million grant to the Canadian Youth Business Foundation (CYBF) announced in today’s federal budget.
Stephen Harper's Conservative government recognizes the value of CYBF.
“Canada has no shortage of young people ready and willing to defy the current doom and gloom. This grant from the Government of Canada will let us increase dramatically the number of business start-ups that we can finance and support through our partners in more than 150 communities across the country,” said Vivian Prokop, CEO of the national charity.
“I would like to thank in particular Industry Canada, Industry Minister Tony Clement, and Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism Diane Ablonczy for their enthusiasm in nurturing a culture of entrepreneurship at a time when Canada needs it most.”
While access to business credit is tight and unemployment is rising, the demand for the CYBF’s financing and mentoring services continues to grow. The number of CYBF-funded start-ups from October 2008 through January 2009 was 68 percent higher than during the same period in 2007, and the Government of Canada’s investment will enable CYBF to meet this growing demand and accelerate its pace of lending.
An estimated 20,000 young people want to start businesses every year but find it difficult to obtain financing through traditional sources. CYBF offers an experienced volunteer mentor and a loan of up to $15,000 with no collateral. Qualified applicants can access a further $15,000 through a partnership with the Business Development Bank of Canada.
The one-year grant will provide much-needed stimulus in communities from coast to coast, enabling the launch of an estimated 800 new businesses within 5 years. Based on the performance of CYBF clients to date, these businesses will generate an estimated 5,000 new jobs, $135 million in sales revenue and $32 million in tax revenue within 5 years

Snapshot of Canada's 2009 Budget

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty delivered Canada’s 2009 federal budget earlier today on January 27, 2009. Members of the KPMG National Tax Centre attended the budget lock-up in Ottawa and have prepared a new edition of TaxNewsFlash-Canada summarizing the announced tax changes.
Thanks to Scott Tomenson, Wealth Management Consultant, for providing us with this link. Read.
Visit Scott at http://familywealthmanager.blogspot.com/

Business owners need private equity

Entrepreneurs and business owners would like Frank McKenna - the fellow who was put forward to head the Liberal Party, but who sadly declined.
I was at my Secret Handshake Bay Street Club - The Ticker Club - where Frank McKenna was the guest speaker and he blew the roof off with his dynamism. Coming from New Brunswick, Frank is prgamatic and gets the role of the manufacturing and other technology businesses in building a strong Canada.
He said, "We need to expand our thinking around innovation from just pumping oil to other countries. We need to be the best at the supporting manufacturing, equipment, technology and service busineses around oil. The same goes for forestry."
"Sounds great but the reality is tough. Many of those types of companies suggested by McKenna are potential clients for Loewen & Partners' services - raising capital for owner managed companies," says Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet. "The problem is that these companies do need to get to be over $100M to survive in the global market. It is very difficult for these companies to do this on their own. Yet, many of these owners do not understand or trust private equity, their ideal partner to grow their companies."
http://www.moneymagnetbook.ca

$1 Trillion and Counting...

Astoundingly, and possibly incomprehensible to most, London based Private Equity Intelligence reported this month that Private Equity Funds raised the second highest level of annual funding in 2008.  Approximately $1 Trillion of capital is currently ready to be deployed.  Only a quarter of this was raised by large buy-out funds, though this amounts to $284.2 billion last year, about the size of Ireland's GDP.   The rest was raised by funds with other focuses, such as real estate funds ($153.5 billion) and funds focused on SMEs, 217 funds raised money in this category, the most of any other.  

However, this news may seem counterintuitive to the news released today, that 50,000 jobs were lost in the U.S. in one day.  Coping with the shock is likely on the mind of all of 50,000 newly minted unemployed.  However, to fund managers with bulging war chests, the wait is on to discover the bottom.  With asset prices falling, demand slumping, and credit inaccessible for most, fund managers are in a very comfortable position to deploy the tremendous amount of cash at their disposal at the plethora of deals not finding an investor right now.  The difficult part is finding the bottom.

A report in the Globe and Mail today suggests that the worst of the economic turmoil may now have passed.  The argument made by Allan Robinson is that Treasury yields have stabilized and have actually shown preliminary signs of rising (judge for yourself the significance of the the rise, but the decline seems to have stabilized...for now).  This means that investors are looking to move their money from out of the wing of the Treasuries and into, likely, investment grade corporate bonds.  This is significant because it means investors are beginning to trust the relative stability we are seeing right now.   

Of course, the economy is not going to recover overnight, but it is likely that by June the consensus amongst economists will be that we have turned the corner, and look to activity in the private equity market to lead the way, and likely significant deal activity to begin in half that time. 

Jack Welch blames the i-bankers

The major banks have taken the biggest hit from last year's financial crisis and they continue to feel the effects of it. The sheer numbers in terms of wealth destruction due to the ongoing de-leveraging process in the financial sector will blow your mind. Check out the financial rapidly dissolving value from a different perspective; thanks to a friend from JPMorgan who sent the above chart.

I was listening to a Businessweek podcast from Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, who said the banks used to be privately held with the result that the top executives - in the form of a Partnership - were lending their own money. They got the upside but they also got the downside.

Jack Welch says that if there is someone to blame for the financial mess, he would lay it at the front door of the i-bankers taking their companies public. Suddenly, they had access to other people's money to lend.

"This is like going to Vegas to gamble," says Welch. "If you get upside, you keep the gains but if you lose, well you come back and apologize."

Jack goes on to describe i-bankers coming to him at GE to invest in risky oil deals.

"If that had been their own money," says Jack, "They would not have risked it. They were looking for my deep balance sheet to take the hit for the risk."
Private equity will be coming into its own for exactly the reason Jack says - these are mostly privately held funds. The best funds will be those that risk the fund partners' money, not just yours. Otherwise, you can put your money back into the public market, but maybe you should head for Las Vegas instead.

Lending to Friends

Banks are not lending and owners of companies suffer.

Why is this not happening? If you could lend a $1M to an entrepreneur and get back that sum plus a measly 2% interest for your trouble, would you lend that amount of money with even a small risk that you might not get it back?

No, of course not.

So, for the Bank of Canada to keep cutting rates, it does not help capitalism that does need a healthy return for lending risk.

"At the moment, banks can borrow money at 0.25%," says Clemens Kownatzki, "But yet, they lend it out at 5.5% for a 30 year mortgage (rough average this week), if they lend at all. To me this is almost criminal and really calls for a complete elimination of the "middle man" i.e. the bank in between ultimate lender and the consumer."

Clemens suggests, "If a bank made poor decisions and took on too much risk, it should deal with the consequences. Instead of bailing out banks, governments should consider lending to the consumers directly. Eliminate the mortgage broker or mortgage bank altogether and give out a mortgage at 4% directly from lender to consumer, but obviously with reasonable down payments say 20% or higher."

"As the credit situation unfolds," says Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet, "It does seem that governments may be favouring sectors and specific companies who seem to have the highest influence over elected officials. Paulson is such a case. It is whispered that he hated the head of Lehmann and that it was a personal decision to let the firm collapse."

Bum Rap for Gen Y

I have been thinking about this economy and if it will affect the work needs of the so-called most entitled generation ever – Generation Y or the Millennial – those born in the late 70’s onwards?
Many Baby Boomers will say, “Those kids need to learn it’s tough and you don’t get a trophy just for turning up for work. No one’s there to applaud and video their every step.”
What about my generation – the Baby Boomers – will our work needs change? Millennial might say, “They destroyed the environment, let greed override ethics and are maxing out the credit, leaving Millennials to pay the tab.”
With four generations working together, we need to get beyond this tired cycle of thinking your own generation is the best and you have to fix the others because they don’t have clue. How can we understand each generation in order to blend the best of our talents?
I put this question to a Millennial engineer, Michael Keenan, whose employer, Arcelormittal Dofasco Steel, is actively addressing the generational gap. “We look at the pivotal events during the formative years of each generation,” says Michael. “Once you understand each generation’s shared geography, cultural and economic environment and the impact on their needs, it is much easier to work together because you understand why they are different.”
Dofasco is using Maslow’s hierarchy of needs to frame each generation’s work behaviour. Each level of needs must be fully satisfied before you can move up to the next level. First level of needs are the physical - which means having a full stomach, for example, or being comfortable. The next stage is the need for safety – to have a job, a home, a family and shared morality with your neighbours. For Canadian-raised Millenials, the luxury of growing up in the most peaceful and affluent time in Canada means that they can move past the safety level right up to esteem needs for recognition for their work and self motivation. They can even reach self actualization which is the need for self governance and the bigger issues of society like justice or peace. Since up until the economic melt down, Millennial have not been afraid for their jobs, they have enjoyed the space to explore these higher level needs.
Hollywood movies help us to put ourselves in those first twenty years of other generations and the early life experiences which shaped the rest of their lives. When supporting actors from the World War II movie Defiance talked about how miserable it got while filming in the forests of Lithuania, you know this is Generation X and The Millennial speaking about their work. It would be tough to imagine John Wayne complaining about the hardships of his movie location. Yet, on the other hand, these young actors are far more nuanced about the deep meaning of their movie and able to probe and question.
Now imagine if you were in that forest and hungry too, with real soldiers with real guns hunting for you. Even snuggled up next to Daniel Craig, smoothing back your hair and letting you check out his bikini briefs – you may find your needs are not so much about having a house with a white marble kitchen or a job that follows your dreams or even the rules of the Geneva Convention. You are at the bottom of Maslow’s hierarchy and after such a trauma, you would be grateful for any darn house, a solid job and you would faithfully work for the boss without question.
Baby Boomer journalist, Tom Brockaw, called people raised during the war “The Greatest Generation” which may sound like overblown hyperbole to Generation Xers and Millennials as they look at Grandfather slumped in his armchair. But WW II is within the memory of humans living today and I meet many of them still working, running poultry, transportation, construction companies, as well as law and finance firms.
In extraordinary contrast, Canadian born Millennial had no war, no fear for their lives, for their family, for their neighbours turning on them or their country being taken by force. Since parents may be funding their lives, they have the luxury of moving way up Maslow’s hierarchy of needs past the Baby Boomers’ level of social needs, to the esteem set of needs and for some, even to self actualization. It is not a surprise then that Millennial in the workplace have smaller social distance between others and have little fear of authority or of others. It is a great place to be.
Companies can benefit if they understand this level of needs. Boomers, once they get this, tap into Millennia’s energy which is team-based and seeking to be the best.
The Millennials I meet are in the finance industry and are exciting because they do question, can hold a range of views not just black and white, pick up work to do on their own initiative and for their own career development. This Canadian generation thinks globally, questions social issues, are challenging, want a balanced life but are there when the work needs to get done by midnight. I may have a slanted view but I think calling Millenials Most Entitled Generation gives them a bum rap.
In sum, it certainly helps me to understand work behaviour by using Maslow’s hierarchy of needs and to see how each generation’s context was completely different. It helps explain a great deal. I know I will be able to work together with more purpose. What do you think?
[1] http://www.abraham-maslow.com/m_motivation/Hierarchy_of_Needs.asp
[2] http://www.amazon.com/Greatest-Generation-Tom-Brokaw/dp/0375502025

Private Equity Increasingly the Place to Go for Money

At 12:32 PM, George and Laura Bush will take their last helicopter ride away from Capital Hill by helicopter. Already, approximately 2 million people have converged on Washington to witness this historic moment when power gets handed over to Obama. The Americans know how to do their pomp and pageantry well, but when tomorrow comes, Barack Obama will have some heavy lifting to do with two wars and a crisis not seen since the Great Depression.
The banking black hole is far from over. NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini who bet his career describing the reason for a poor outcome for the U.S. housing market and outlined that U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis could reach U$3.6 trillion, half by banks and brokers dealers. Roubini says, "If that's true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with capital of U$1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis…In Europe it's the same thing."

In the New York Times, economist and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman wrote that many U.S. financial institutions, "are already wards of the state, utterly dependent on taxpayer support; but nobody wants to recognize that fact and implement the obvious solution: an explicit, though temporary, government takeover."
Former Securities and Exchange Commission head, Arthur Levitt echoed that view saying we are witnessing a "slow but inevitable nationalization…we will see it and see it soon."

The U.K. is already well down that road.
Yesterday the government announced it was converting its Royal Bank of Scotland preferred shares into ordinary shares, potentially increasing its stake to 70%. They U.K. government also has a 43% stake in the combined Lloyds TSB and HBOS. Shares of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) fell almost 70% yesterday on the news. RBS also said it does not expect to pay a dividend on its ordinary shares this year.

While Canadian Banks are not in the same position, Canadian Bank stocks are lower on this news this morning. The banks will be under extreme pressure, making it a difficult time to get money.

"For smart business owners wanting capital to take advantage of this econmy by buying competitors or cheap assets," says Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet, "Increasingly, the private sector will be the place to go for money. This money will be different from banks - it will work with entrepreneurs to build competitive Canadian businesses that will not be eaten for lunch by global competitors."

Ben Bernanke's Beard

Ben Bernanke and his beard have been working like dogs lately to pump out over a trillion dollars and save ourselves from a recession.  These extreme measures should be no surprise to many, he was hailed as a radical by The New Yorker long before he assumed his current responsibilities, but you can't be blamed for thinking he was just another boring bureaucrat keen on never rocking the boat.  Many have been fooled by that beard, the looks of which give the impression of a highly meticulous, erudite man that very likely wears inappropriate swimwear to the pool (I don't know Ben, I'm just guessing).  His current monetary policy is certainly radical but time will tell if his decision to print and pump trillions of dollars into the economy will have him hailed as an equal to the world's bearded legends (Lincoln, Karl Marx, 'Macho Man' Randy Savage, etc) or a pariah with whiskers.

There are two opposing opinions in response to his monetary policy; those who support the Fed and those who are wary of the consequences.  If you are seriously concerned about a difficult, painful recession (and possibly depression), then you are likely to agree with the amount of 'new' money being pumped into the system.  However, others who believe that the world isn't headed for so much gloom are concerned with the impending economic implications of increasing the money supply at a seemingly unrestrained rate, such as problems with high inflation and a crash of the U.S. dollar.

It's not a little bit of extra pocket change either, it's bags of it.  Even relative to what has been printed in the past, it is an astounding amount of money.  The chart below illustrates, essentially, the U.S. monetary base since the Second World War.  

That's right....vertical.  

As a result of all this money filtering into the market through vehicles like the $700 billion bailout package, a T-bill 'bubble' has been created.  T-Bills are attractive right now for a variety of reasons, but mainly because they are liquid, big, and you are guaranteed not to lose your money.  The government pledges the bond will be payed back to you and as a 'thank you', depending on what you paid for it, they include a little return for good measure.

These days, the returns have almost entirely been wiped out of the bonds, the 2 year U.S. T-Bill, for example, is yielding around  0.70% right now, as opposed to almost 2% 9 months ago.  That's minuscule.  The reason for this, of course, is that investors are chasing the T-Bill's security, which has driven the prices up, and dropped the yields.  Some may argue that the price is artificially high, or unsupportable, and is driven by all the 'new' money being pumped out by the federal presses, hence a 'bubble'.  However, it's not actually a bubble since the U.S. government is unlikely to default on its obligations, and everyone is virtually guaranteed to receive at least the face value of the bond at the end of their terms.  Ultimately though, these prices indicate that once investors feel there is some stability in the market and it is safe to come out from under the wing of the T-Bills, there will be high inflation and the U.S. dollar will fall. 

So, for those that find themselves intoxicated with Ben Bernanke's beard and current monetary policy, they should really think to restrain this unbridled love affair.  We only need to look at history to see how things may wind up.  In 2004, Alan Greenspan did much of the same as his successor to spurn the crash after the tech bubble burst.  A lot of the money that was produced by the Federal Reserve was loaned out to credit-worthy people who wanted homes, and when all of those people had been satisfied and there was still money left in the coffers, the non-credit worthy people received loans.  It turns out, people with bad credit don't usually pay their bills on time, some not at all.  

If his decision to churn out so much money does eventually result in a huge loss in the dollar and  $150 oil, high food prices, and other forms of painful inflation, the beard may be the only respectable thing left.  

Light at the End of the Tunnel

The first morsel of light poked through the darkness today.  It was reported on CFO.com that the bond market is showing signs of thaw.  According to the article, a "number of energy companies this week tapped the slowly thawing fixed-income market."  One such company, Nabors Industries Inc., an offshore and onshore drilling company, raised $1.125 billion in senior unsecured notes due in 2019.  What is encouraging is that the coupon rate is 9.25% while the bond is expected to yield 6.76%, impying the bond is priced at a premium.  

What is also remarkable is that the company was downgraded to a BBB-plus rating from an A-minus as a result of the added debt, meaning that this company was able raise a significant amount of capital at a premium price while being considered a lower-medium investment grade.  This was just one example among a number of others that have been able to tap into the bond market at premiums over par though not being considered high investment grade.   

These are promising developments, though by no means sure signs of relief, they do indicate that there is appetite in the market.  It should be noted that these are striclty energy companies, which generate revenue from a commodity that has a price right now that is unanimously considered to be poised for significant appreciation, namely oil.   But what is encouraging is that there are pockets of optimism brewing.  

 

Has Manufacturing and Engineering Lost Value?

Tom Peters posted an inspiring post on the value of the well-engineered hammer. He could not resist buying the one in this photograph. Reading Tom's comment section, I noted that a person called "ZED" wrote that that being a scientist or engineer has lost its value in North America.

I agreed and noted that "my two teenagers (who are heading towards engineering) tell me that the general comment by his peers are that those are Asian jobs and are being offshored to Asia. One of my teens is the only one in advanced math who is not Asian, but he tells me it's because of parenting. The hammer reminded me of Clint Eastwood's new movie, Gran Torino, where Clint's character teaches a second generation immigrant the American value of getting out the hammer and fixing up your home, your neighbour's home and getting a job. Just as Tom Peters discusses, it all comes back to that hammer. It's not fancy but it's work - decent hard work. It also makes me wonder when I read Daniel Pink who tells people that the engineers at his university were not loving their school work. Pink says to do what you love and if it's not making you happy all the time, don't do it. I really question that. Seems self indulgent."
Posted by Jacoline Loewen at January 5, 2009 9:54 AM

Tom Peters (my hero) responded:
I don't want to get in the middle of this, but beware apples and oranges. The Chinese are turning out engineers by the bushel. Or are they? A McKinsey Institute study last year claimed that some-many-most Chinese graduate engineers would not be accepted for engineering jobs in the U.S., EU, Japan, Korea, etc. At this point at least, many of the so-called engineering grads are holding what we might call a technician's certificate. Part of this is attributed to state control of curricula. Again, not my area of expertise.

Apples and oranges II.

Swedes, I just read, are horrified at the recent precipitous drop in math-science test scores. Most of it may come from a rapidly increasing immigrant population not as well prepared for school as the natives. For a long time, probably today, much of the U.S. SAT gap could be explained by the fact that everybody of age in the U.S. is encouraged to take the test--it's restricted to the educational elite in many countries.

Posted by tom peters at January 5, 2009 12:39 PM

Tax Cuts for Business Owners

Not to dwell on the past, but Bloomberg estimates that $30 trillion was erased from public equity markets worldwide last year. And Tunisia was the only market out of 69 in MSCI Inc. indexes that increased in 2008. 28 national benchmarks lost more than half their value, led by the 67% drop in Russia's Micex index, a 66% drop in China's CSI 300 Index and a 52% decline in India's Sensex Index. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index posted the smallest decline among the word's 20 largest markets falling 31%, and on a bright point - I believe that the TSX was second with a decline of 35% on an absolute basis.
"If there is something positive this early in January 2009," says Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet and partner at Loewen & Partners, "It would be that the market continues to welcome actions taken by President elect Barack Obama who will be sworn in on Tuesday January 20."
Obama's stimulus package appears to be a mix between spending (to appeal to Democrats) and tax cuts (to appeal to Republicans). The funny thing about putting together such a large package is that it's really hard to find $800 billion worth of stuff to spend on that will be immediately stimulative to the economy; hence another reason perhaps that Mr. Obama is leaning more towards tax cuts.

PIPEs

According to Ron Burgundy, the "only way to bag a classy lady is to give her two tickets to the gun show, and see if she likes the goods".  Any red-blooded male would agree with Ron, but I'm not about to talk about those sorts of "pipes".

PIPEs, or private investment in public equities are beginning to come to the forefront of private equity investment strategy.  With the access to debt shut off and the amount of capital under management (or "dry powder") growing ever more restless, private equity fund managers are simply becoming more creative in their pursuit of returns.  Rather than pursuing the leverage buyout model, its fall from grace having been extensively documented, private equity funds are pursuing new models.  When the the sexy investment banks were de-robeing last summer for all of us to see what lay underneath their sophisticated Gucci credit default swaps and Prada securitized loan obligations we found a dumpy-looking pair of underpants from Writedowns Inc. The writedowns from Merril Lych, Citigroup, and the family on Wall Street offered a tremendous amount of discounted debt in the market.  Private equity funds bought this up.  

Since then the public markets have lost half their value, also, public listings have come to a standstill.  In Q3 of 2008, there were zero IPOs in the Toronto Stock Exchange.  Apparently, there is no appetite for private companies to see half of their value lost in a matter of weeks upon listing.  However, public companies looking to raise some funds are still able to do so, but from private equity funds.

Private investments in public equity (PIPEs) have picked up beginning at the end of last year according to this article in the Globe and Mail.  This is not news to those operating in the private equity space as this is becoming an increasingly active market to operate in, but it is a testament to the adaptable nature of private equity flexing its intelectual capital to generate returns from their "dry powder" when others spout on about the doom that lay ahead.  

6 Surprises of Transition Management

Transitions of leaders in businesses can be surprising, especially for the new leader. Here are the common surprises new CEOs face, and how to tell when adjustments are necessary.
Surprise One: You Can't Run the Company
Warning signs:
You are in too many meetings and involved in too many tactical discussions.
There are too many days when you feel as though you have lost control over your time.
Surprise Two: Giving Orders is Very Costly
Warning signs:
You have become the bottleneck.
Employees are overly inclined to consult you before they act.
People start using your name to endorse things, as in "Frank says…"
Surprise Three: It Is Hard To Know What Is Really Going On
Warning signs:
You keep hearing things that surprise you.
You learn about events after the fact.
You hear concerns and dissenting views through the grapevine rather than directly.

To read more
Transition within companies is the most important time to reap wealth for your hard work. Loewen & Partners advises owners on how to get the most value out of their businesses.

the 7 habits of inefficient markets

What is the market up to? I get to listen to the market, or at least a fairly large part of it, as I belong to a finance club with Bay Street's smartest money guys. Collectively they control several billion Canadian dollars, so when they talk, I listen. Over the last five years, since I joined, I have listened to leaders of public companies, owners of private companies, stock promoters, investors and many more. Yet few of these people spoke about the big crash coming up in 2008.
As we leave the decade of the "Naughts" and wrap up lessons learnt about markets in the past ten years, I realize that even this club of such smart men and women followed the markets off the cliff in 2008. What were they thinking?
Back in 2007, Paul Krugman summarized the seven habits that help produce the anything-but-efficient markets that rule the world. I thought a great way to begin the next decade would be a quick review of these:
Seven habits that help produce the anything-but-efficient markets:
1. Think short term. 
2. Be greedy. 
3. Believe in the greater fool 
4. Run with the herd. 
5. Overgeneralize 
6. Be trendy 
7. Play with other people's money 
I got these 7 habits courtesy of Paul Krugman, quoted in Fortune back in 2007. Worth contemplating.
Jacoline Loewen, author, writer, and expert in private equity.

Private Equity interested in good companies

The credit markets are changing.
Banks may not be lending but private equity has cash for owners of businesses looking for growth capital. Watch Toronto's BNN's Squeezeplay as they chat with Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet
http://watch.bnn.ca/squeezeplay/december-2008/squeezeplay-december-30-2008/#clip125488

For more information:
http://www.moneymagnetbook.ca

It's that time of year again, forecast 2009

As the new year begins, so do the market forecast sessions. I will be attending the Toronto Bay Street Ticker Club forecast dinner this week, and this past year unfolded in a very different path from the one described at last year's dinner. It gives everyone comfort that even the best analysts did not see the level of the crisis - we all are in this together.
One bright light is the 2009 forecast by Niall Ferguson in National Times. It may bring you some joy in the New Year. Here's a sample:
"Many commentators had warned in 2008 that the financial crisis would be the final nail in the coffin of American credibility around the world. First, neo-conservatism had been discredited in Iraq. Now the “Washington consensus” on free markets had collapsed. Yet this was to overlook two things. The first was that most other economic systems fared even worse than America’s when the crisis struck: the country’s fiercest critics – Russia, Venezuela – fell flattest. The
second was the enormous boost to America’s international reputation that followed Obama’s inauguration. "

Squeezeplay with Kevin O'Leary

Appearing on the always interesting, often controversial TV show - BNN’s ‘Squeezeplay’ with hosts Amanda Lang and Kevin O’Leary - on Tuesday 30th at 5:30, is Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet. Find out about the world of private equity and how private capital is taking advantage of this collapsed market.

The Baltic Dry Index

Much of the focus in the news today is on the economy, and for obvious reasons, it's subprime mortgage this, credit crisis that, the CBC's The National and its slapdash analysis of our woes would make you think we're all getting pink slips tomorrow and an ice cream cone (CTV's National News does a better job at understanding and describing what is going on in the market). 

Much of the economic indicators that proliferate from our nightly news, like monthly employment numbers and housing starts, mark the goal posts through which our economy is kicked.  Any errant balls are wistfully reported on by journalists voraciously anticipating thousands clamoring for the newstands the next day, full of fear that their homes will soon be unafordable.  At times, it seems the journalist is the first to fall to mass hysteria and the last to admit it.  Thomas Jefferson said, "advertisements remain the only truth to be relied upon in a newspaper", of all the facts that come from our nightly news these day, this sadly remains true.  

It's best to take our own minds into our own hands, lest we be led astray by journalists.  A great economic indicator that is never quoted in the news and that may be of interest to the skeptical reader or viewer is the Baltic Dry Index.  It has been touted in the past as one of the best economic indicators you have never heard of, and what's more, it's a leading indicator, a prescient little factoid that could be unwrapped neatly at dinner parties and delivered to impress the impressionable.

The short of it is, the Baltic Dry Index is a number issued daily by London's Baltic Exchange, which was founded in 1744 by the Virginia and Baltick coffeehouses in London's financial district.  Every day, the exchange asks brokers around the world the cost to book a variety of cargoes of raw materials on various routes around the world.  The result measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers.  Shipping capacity is generally inelastic, it takes two years to build a new ship, so increases in demand for raw materials pushes the index up quickly and drops in demand do the opposite at the same rate.  What makes this index so interesting is that it ultimately charts the demand for the raw materials that make up our finished goods,  so it would be here, at the Baltic Dry Index, where we would see the first signs of a stable increase in demand, signaling a sustained return to growth.

The index has fallen considerably in the past year, a reflection of plummeting demand and deflation, but under closer inspection it seems to have reached a bottom from which it is stabilizing at around 800.  A sign of good things to come?  Unfortunately, economic indicators, much like economist, make little sense alone, but the Baltic Dry is a good place to start making up your own mind on things.

Crisis on Wall Street - Blodgett's view

Back to the last big market downturn - the Tech Bubble - I took the advice of a certain Mr. Henry Blodgett (who was the tech guru at Merril Lynch) and bought AOL instead of Amazon. Herny has tried to redeem himself after his massive fall from the heights of Wall Street. I've tried to redeem my savings too.
I was intrgued to see old Henry's take on the current state of the markets. Read...
Last year, I wrote about the fall of the public markets in Money Magnet. At the time, my publisher asked me to tone it down as she could not see Wall Street ever losing value!

Credit Crunch Games for Your Christmas Party

Want to really understand what the credit crunch means for the economy? In Canada, private equity will have a challenge getting anyone to think about debt or credit. Our economy is frozen to match the weather.
I was surprised to see that The Economist has a sense of humour during these dark days but this is a good game to play. I got it from Jeff Watson.
Check it out:
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12798307

Manufacturing in Ontario

Business owners and manufacturers in Ontario are struggling with the new realities.
We have passed the agricultural, industrial, and information ages and we've entered the conceptual age. The three As—abundance, automation, and Asia—ushered in this new era.
In the same way that machines have replaced our bodies in certain kinds of jobs, software is replacing our left brains by doing sequential, logical work.
And that brings us to Asia, to where that work is being shipped.
In Asia you have tens of millions of people who can do routine tasks like write computer code. Routine is work you can reduce to a spreadsheet, to a script, to a formula, to a series of steps that has the right answer.
Daniel Pink has written A Whole New Mind about this change and how it applies to the companies we create. "This is great book to tell you where to invest your private equity fund money," says Jacoline Loewen , author of Money Magnet and a partner in the private equity company of Loewen & Partners. "Every manufacturer in Ontario should read it to know what to do."
He tells us that his generation's parents told their children, "Become an accountant, a lawyer, or an engineer; that will give you a solid foothold in the middle class."
But these jobs are now being sent overseas. So in order to make it today, you have to do work that's hard to outsource, hard to automate. To play an interview with Daniel Pink, press on link below:
http://event.oprah.com/videochannel/soulseries/oss_player_980x665.html?guest=dp&part=1

Getting the Public Equity Markets Right

Here is the brilliant Nassim Nicholas Taleb in a recent Charlie Rose interview:
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9713
Taleb talks about Capitalism 2 where instead of relying on public markets to make money, people will now revert back to private money.
This is exactly what I said in Money Magnet, where I predicted the end of the public markets as the main model for creating value. Private equity is money which goes into companies directly from one human to another human who look eachother in the eye at least once every few months and who work together to build value in the business.
Beats the ATM machine style of investing in the public markets.

The Wisdom of the Markets

Rudyard Kipling wrote his poem 'God of the Copybook Headings' and still stands a metaphor for our current woes:

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,

By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;

But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,

And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew

And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true

That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four

And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man

There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.

That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,

And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins

When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,

As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,

The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return.

The poem was written in 1919, is apt and shows that nothing really changes.

Copybooks were an exercise book used to practise handwriting in. The pages were blank except for a printed specimen of perfect handwriting at the top. You were supposed to copy this specimen all down the page.The specimens were proverbs or quotations, or little sayings – the ones in the poem illustrate the kind of thing.
About Kipling: He had lost his dearly loved son in World War One, and a precious daughter some years earlier. He was a drained man in 1919, and England, which he identified with so intensely, was a drained nation. With all this as background, the general opinion is that The Gods of the Copybook Headings is a clinging to old-fashioned common sense by a man deeply in need of something to cling to....
As many do again just on 90 years later.

What is The VC Screening Process?

VCs have to screen deals that come through their doors. They see thousands of proposals and you have to break through to get their attention. Your business plan can help you stand out from the crowd, or not. If you do not have a decent plan, forget it.
Where Does Your Deal Fit?
Ask your venture capitalist where your company investment would be placed in their fund horizon. If your company is first in, then you have more time (five years) to make money before being required to pay back the full amount. If you are last in, the time for the VC to get out will be closer.
It also depends when you meet with the VCs and at which stage they are with their fund. If they have already filled up most of their fund, they will be very choosy about the last two companies. If they have just obtained the cash, then they will be feeling more generous. After the investment, find out who will handle your file. Will it be the same person who did the due diligence and who spent time getting to know your business? That person will have an emotional attachment. If a new guy is handling your file, there will be far less commitment.
The VC is a high-risk, high-return animal. Three out of ten companies in their fund will drive their fund’s return. If you are in that portfolio and your business is struggling, expect some pressure from the VCs. They want winners as these are their bread and butter. VCs make money for people who make them money. There are usually ten years in their life cycle: the first five years are used to seed your business and the remaining five are used to harvest the investment. The VCs must get out. They are not there to fund you into retirement.

How Much Should I Prepare to Meet an Investor?

Expect to spend at least a few weeks preparing to visit a sophisticated investor. Otherwise, you are dead before you even begin. Without the work, you might just as well climb into a coffin, hand a stake to the investor and said, “Drive it in, please.”
Your business plan is much like a resume and it’s the ticket that will get you to the next stage: a face-to-face meeting. Attracting money to your business will be easier if you show your vision of the business and how you plan to execute it. You can make yourself far more attractive to investors if you have a merger possibility on the radar that you can name.
“It's the people, not the product, that investors are most interested in,” says Ilske Treurnicht, MArs. “And first impressions are important. Be active and interested without being arrogant. A banking or VC relationship typically lasts four to eight years, so investors tend to look for people they like and believe they'll get along with. Also, they do want people who are prepared.”
"How people present themselves to investors says very loudly how that business owner presents their product to their customers.

I Need Money - Where Do I get It?

One of the bloggers on CBC's hit TV reality show, Dragons' Den, posed the often posed question, "I'm under thirty years old, where do I get money to start my business?"

I recommend the Canadian Youth Business Forum.

This is program run by entrepreneurs for young, new entrepreneurs who are too high risk for banks. Don't slag off the banks either as they must look after the money given to them by depositors. If the US banks had remembered that priority, the world economy would not be in this current mess.

But back to the CYBF.

It lends money to young people but then assigns them a mentor and makes them part of a group. This helps these youthful business people get through the failures of business. 80% of small businesses do fail but CYBF's program, pushes that statistic way down.

One of these CYBF success stories is in the National Post, read the story here.

QuickSnap is being mentored by Brett Wilson, a Dragon from the Dragons' Den. Already, QuickSnap has gone to Afghanistan and, hopefully, the military will set up a contract soon.

Here is the story on CYBF, Brett Wilson and Quicksnap with more...

Driving Canada's Business Success

I live in an age which has seen the end of the British Empire, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and now, perhaps the decline of America, like a giant air balloon slowly deflating. In the meantime, the peaceful rise of a dynamic China and other Asian countries, matched with the rise in our own overambitious government entitlement programs, creates a new level of expectation for citizens.
When I went to McGill University, a slice of pizza at Gertrude’s on a Friday would be my one treat – otherwise I lived on peanut butter, tuna sandwiches, and beans on toast (yes, I like bread). I rarely bought a pre-made meal, which is why I was jolted by a blog written in response to Karen Selick, a lawyer with Reynolds O'Brien, LLP., who commented on Food Banks. This student was horrified at the thought of another student not being able to buy a cafeteria item. What’s wrong, I wondered, with the cheaper option of packing a cheese sandwich and an apple for lunch?
The end goal of helping the poor is desirable, but the debate rages around “how” we give.

Selick points out that there are better ways to achieve the same goal – temporarily feeding a person in dire straits. The use of supermarkets as the location to pick up goods seems a no brainer. Business owner Graeme Jewett of Marsan Foods tells me his company makes various President’s Choice frozen dinners but also a 97¢ frozen dinner, which has some meat and is preservative-free, for Giant Tiger stores. Can the Food Bank really beat the operating cost of getting an equivalent item onto Food Bank shelves? Could the savings pay for that 97¢ meal?
The Food Bank style of charity – giving to ease symptoms – is not to be confused with venture giving – philanthropy – which targets the underpinnings of society, asks why poverty occurs, and seeks to level access to opportunities.

Andrew Squire used to stay up all night doing his music and longed to own his own sound studio in Toronto. Then, he benefited from the philanthropy of the Canadian Youth Business Foundation (CYBF), which redistributes money toward loans for high-risk entrepreneurs.
Andrew says, “It’s private companies like CYBF who taught me the skills to be an independent business owner by providing me with $1,000 a month for a year and giving me a mentor. CYBF insisted that I write business plans, make financial projections, and answer questions about the revenues and strategy of my business. By transferring their entrepreneurial skills, CYBF encouraged my passion for music into a business. I won the sound contract for a Sprite commercial and now I have my own studio – King Squire Audio. Of the 20 people in my CYBF program, more than half are now hiring other people. The cost – $240,000 – is peanuts compared to what the government is spending on big conglomerates.”
Andrew agrees with Selick, that “how” skills or resources are given increase the impact of levelling the playing field. “The CYBF model should be exploited as it is entrepreneurs who are running the program. Letting government ‘do the giving’ would be inefficient. It was private business people who taught me how to raise money and who gave me the right ideas about the tough world of business and this came through CYBF.”
The Food Bank is well meaning with its belief in the redistribution of wealth, but I believe in the redistribution of skills to people like Andrew Squire, who has shed his dreadlock image and projects a quiet confidence. The Food Bank tips the pendulum toward socialism. I nudge the pendulum toward free enterprise. The totality of resources is never sufficient to meet all goals at the same time. Life is dialectic – private enterprise versus public duty. But effective giving is something we can all have the courage and honesty to face.

Jacoline Loewen is a financial advisor for companies seeking capital, as well as a corporate strategy expert, lecturer, and writer with three published books. the latest is Money Magnet: How to attract investors to your business.

How to Get the VC to Call

There are certain things, such as resumes, that catch the eye of seasoned pros and get them to pick up the phone and call you.
VCs don’t invest in technology or markets, they invest in people.
If the people stuff goes wrong, it’s hell. They put you through due diligence while at the same time trying to find out what kind of person you are.
When you pitch in, it’s a sociological experiment to see what makes you tick and whether you will be co-operative or will crack.
Probably the most powerful action you can take is to find a referral to a partner in the business. It’s a bit like dating. If someone they trust refers you to a VC, they will take your call. "The question I get asked the most is how to find investors," says Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet. "Owners are better of having a company like Loewen & Partners find them a suitable investor."
Warning: Bad phone manners are an immediate red flag. The VC knows they are entering into a seven-year relationship and they will not waste time with someone who rankles. If they can’t see themselves married to you, it’s a quick, “thank you but no thanks.”

How do you define value?

"Your conversation around the valuation of your business may begin with the investor asking for a quick snapshot of your financial picture, but a weak EBITDA (see glossary) will by no means end the chat" says Jacoline Loewen. "Valuation of a business comes from the fund itself and the type of companies they already have in their portfolio."
“Often companies we like do not have EBIDTA or revenues, so we cannot use these tools as value markers.” Instead, Peter Carrescia of VenGrowth Capital Management Inc. says, his team values businesses with:
• High barriers to entry;
• The capability of rapid revenue growth;
• An analysis of what will happen in the market over the next three years;
• Identification of the Number One Issue to overcome;
• The perfect intersection of company, services/products and cycle in the market.
The whole business of investing is complex and wrought with chaos. A very big difference when investing in IT compared to other businesses is that the VCs know that eventually it all comes down to the team involved. Tech VCs can perform the complex science of due diligence, research the market and call past clients, but the only valid metadata worth drilling into is the people. The art of predicting winning people is much harder. Investing in a practiced team is a good indicator of success, but it is still an art.

Deal dead and buried

Private equity and debt deal of the century ends. See the full story here.

The key reason why the biggest leveraged buyout ever was killed was that it
didn't live up to a "solvency opinion" -- a declaration by auditor KPMG that the
company would have been solvent after the takeover loaded it with billions in
fresh debt.

Posted by Anastassia Kobeleva

Raising Capital for SMEs

I had to cancel a meeting today with a Bay Street lawyer. He commented to me that if you have a client deal to do, treasure it because these are dark days.
Last night I was at the RBC Women Entrepreneur of the Year awards and Diane Francis of The National Post was there and also commented frequently on the tough days we are facing. There was a ripple of agreement through the room of 2,000 female entrepreneurs. The Publisher of Profit magazine brought some light to all this gloom and doom telling us about research that recessions and depressions first begin to lift in the SME sector. Our target market - Loewen & Partners, that is - is the SME with revenues of $10M+ and it’s true that there is private equity investment dollars available.
Quite heartening.

You've Got Talent But...

J.B. Loewen's blog about Dragons' Den:

It’s time for another game of Crack the Whip with Kevin O’Leary at the head and the entrepreneur at the end.
And we were not disappointed as the Dragons’ Den show opened with Elke presenting her Lump O’ Coal, a Christmas stocking stuffer. Robert Herjavec thought it was cute but as Elke brought out her red Lump O’ Coal for Valentine’s, and so on, Arlene saw the flaw - Elke really had a single product for the investment opportunity.
There is only one thing that bothers Kevin—SKUs!
We’ve covered the topic of SKUs (Stock Keeping Unit) before with past Dragons’ Den presentations; Kevin means that the cost of managing and delivering single unit orders will eat up the profits. Think shirts: If you only had one design of shirt, you can see why delivering orders of one shirt to many stores would not be cost effective. To scale up, a company needs a wider range of products to pack for each client, otherwise you will be SKUed. And with that, Kevin skewered the deal, saying, “Deep in your heart, Elke, you know Lump O’ Coal will be a lump of you-know-what.”
Arlene tried to reason with Elke and said with a calming smile, “Cut through the harsh criticism (I’m really sorry you have to listen to Kevin) and hear the very good advice (Kevin is not such a ‘nothing burger’, he does teach at an important Business School).”
What Arlene was trying to explain is that an equity investor needs to make returns of above 20%, but by no means is Elke in a bad business. A single, seasonal product will simply not attract investors like the Dragons, and she would be better off getting debt financing or a government loan from the EDC. Quite rightly, Jim Treliving also respectfully advised that the company was a nice cottage industry and to keep it that way.
Single SKU companies can work and we saw this with a previous presenter – Sue and her Omega Tree Stand – who did well after fizzling at Dragons’ Den. Getting exposure on the show resulted in orders coming to Sue—landing her Canadian Tire and big-box stores high volume orders.
That doesn’t change the fact that for venture capital, the Dragons made the right decision, but thanks to Dragons’ Den, Sue got the free marketing exposure to get her phone ringing.
W. Brett Wilson, who is more used to coal as a source of energy, squinted in his tough guy way and rasped, “But why would anyone buy a lump of coal?”
Being of Scottish descent, I know that the Lump O’ Coal comes from the tradition of having a tall, dark stranger with a piece of coal for your fireplace be the first to cross the threshold in the New Year (Fabio look-a-likes being particularly popular with the ladies of the house.)
But I digress.
Let’s get back to Robert Herjavec, he of the matching tie and handkerchief sets, with his agreeable—almost rakish—way of chatting with entrepreneurs. It’s evident that Kevin doesn’t want to be any entrepreneur’s Facebook friend, but Robert’s warmth will soothe entrepreneurs, getting them to relax. But it was not enough to calm the nerves of the laid-off auto worker team, Jason and Leigh, as they presented their wall calendar. Arlene, being a single mum of four children herself, knows what it is like to co-ordinate family and commiserated that a shared wall calendar sounded good but, like some Nanny 911 ideas, hard to follow through.
Indeed, Kevin wished he could fire his family for their slacker ways over schedules.
When unpacking what went wrong afterwards with Dianne Buchner, the Den’s insightful host who adds helpful hints, Jason said the presentation was not good enough.
Ouchey! I wondered if Jason’s wife, who did the lion’s share of the presentation, was thinking, “Buddy—you’re not getting any for the next month!
There is a great deal of ambiguity in investing and each Dragon has their style. One Dragon might love your product but another one not be remotely interested. Throughout this season, the rookie Dragon, W. Brett Wilson, has been the shining light for entrepreneurs, coming through to invest in people he sees are trying their best or with a unique product. Likewise, we see Kevin O’Leary invest with his strict set of rules which, luckily, he teaches us.
We saw Brett do a handshake deal for a million dollars with a green energy technology entrepreneur, the big prerogative being IF Magnacoaster passes through the due diligence process and does what the entrepreneur says it does. Then Brett returns to Moxy Trades with a reduced offer, and clinches that deal. Finally, Brett and Arlene both shake hands with the First Memories Photobook team. After all, new mums can never have enough pictures of their baby snuggle-muffins.
What happened? Two words.
Deals done.
Clearly, Brett is a Dragon ready to invest and I love the “Kaching, Kaching” noises inserted every time there’s a handshake.
Finally, up comes a magic show, Illusions Dinner Theatre - would Brett sign up another entertainment act? Would we see more of Big Jim’s smooth dance moves which rival the Four Tops? To the bemusement of all, Robert volunteered for the magic act. Whoa! Robert, what were you thinking? By that stage, had the entrepreneur, Don, already sensed the deal was not happening? He could have been planning a horse’s head under Kevin O’Leary’s bed. Now you’re going to let him stick knives in your head?
Repeat: Knives and Dragons are a dangerous mixture—especially when the entrepreneur may be unhappy with the “no investment” decision.
Again, the Dragons enjoyed Don’s talent show but real estate financing is not the typical type of deal that equity investors do. As Big Jim advised, “It was a great show but cabaret acts last twenty months. Get to a bigger place, like Vegas, and don’t get saddled with real estate.”
And that’s all folks.
I’m sure you will agree that Dragons’ Den has succeeded in pulling back the curtain of mystery to reveal what are the features of a business every entrepreneur must be able to discuss with a potential investor. The Den is a gateway into how to be a great entrepreneur and, if you watch the whole season on the website, it’s an MBA course in Entrepreneurship 101—minus the school fees. Many of the presenters asking for investment dollars in the Den are Creative Achievers—people who do not fit the traditional management career track, who take risks and who change the world a little or a lot. Probably all of the Dragons fall into this category. None of this season’s presenters need bother with an MBA, and with Dragons’ Den giving many a jump start, they will be phenomenal.
Kudos to CBC for creating the Dragons’ Den website with the Forum where fans can blog. I think it has elevated the level of transparency and trust – a boost for the CBC brand. Also, the updates on companies from the show as they begin to blossom with a little help from their Dragon investors, is proving to be a terrific platform for Canadian enterprise. We can find out more about EcoTraction, for instance, which reminds me to buy the eco-salt for my doggy’s paws, as well as anything sporting the Dragons’ Den logo. The CBC showcases how an investor might work for your company by cross-selling products. Quicksnap goes to Afghanistan with CDs of a Canadian country singer who also wears Hillberg and Berk jewellery. Here you see three products, two from Dragons’ Den, being cross-marketed in a compelling way.
Watching the video of Quicksnap in Afghanistan though, with the enthusiastic Afghanistan gentleman enjoying the music, was the best Christmas present for me this year, bringing tears to my eyes. That is the true heart of business.
Before I get too schmaltzy, better close.
Dragons’ Den is my (and I suspect for a lot of you too) weekly passion. Now, as the season draws to a close, what are we going to do? Here’s an idea—the CBC has taken a leaf out of the play book of Gene Simmons’ success with KISS, by marketing the band of Dragons. I recommend wearing your favourite Dragon T-shirt to do your grocery shopping on a Saturday morning; it will probably improve your dating odds. Can you see it now—Arlene bumps into Big Jim in the tofu aisle.
I’ve said it before but even Kevin will agree Dragons’ Den is a great use of our tax payer moneeeeeeeey.
See you on January 11th.

Private Equity: Up, Up and Away

Job losses in the United States are the early cough of the venerable cold Canada will catch soon enough.  Unemployment statistics out of the U.S. released last weak showed jobs are being shed across the whole economy and at a faster rate than expected.  Big, infectious coughs, blowing up over the Adirondacks and into our backdoor. 

Though many fund managers will tell you that they have barrels of "dry powder" stowed away in their coffers (aka, cash ready to invest), the reality is that the powder is being preserved for a much larger offensive likely to begin during the typical (military) campaigning season, beginning in the Spring.  In the same breathe, they will explain that the deal flow they are seeing right now is actually greater than it was a year ago, but the caveat is that the quality of the deals are not as good.  

There are a few reasons for the increased deal flow.  Private equity's growth in the new millennium, largely due to increased private savings of a wealthy middle class, began to pique the interest of newsmen and women the world over, but it's popularity struck most significantly in 2007 with the advent of the blockbuster deals.  Beginning in the summer of 2007, just after the green movement fell out of vogue and before the sub-prime crisis began spilling ink, private equity was all the rage in newspapers across the continent and in Europe. Blockbuster deals like the buyouts of BCE, TXU Energy, and Chrysler splashed across the front pages of newspapers across the globe; the private lives of fund managers were being written about, from their their cop orate jets flying all across the world, to lobster dinners on Fifth Avenue.

So with lower quality deals blowing in the door, fund managers have grown more discriminating in regard to what they would deploy their 'dry powder' into.  This is leading to a great many "orphaned deals" disseminating throughout the market.  Generally speaking, the public market is trading shares at half their value from a year ago and a fund manager won't invest into a private company at a greater price than he can invest in a comparable public company, which means that the value of private companies are being depressed at this time as well.  At first light of market stabilization, the dry powder will begin to be deployed at an incredible rate, as funds compete to snatch up companies still trading at relatively low multiples, getting more equity for their investment dollar.    

Though the Canadian economy will inevitably be pulled along with the current global problems, look for activity in the private equity market to signal a recovery.  Fund managers are intelligent and have the flexibility to creatively carve out the returns they crave, but they are not superheroes, and will wait until the volatility gives some indication of subsiding.