Will Nouriel Roubini's Advice on Payroll Cuts Help?

Nouriel Roubini is giving links to his Wall Street movie cameo - seems awfully vain to me. I saw Paul Krugman on Bring me the Greek last night. What is with these economists...are they are going gaga? Nouriel and Paul may believe they are mainstreaming their subject, and I agree, we all have to move with the social media times, but Tweeting about yourself on the movie too? Come on, Nouriel, you're not Hollywood.
Here is Mish's comments on  Nouriel's latest ideas in Response to Nouriel Roubini on "America Needs a Payroll Tax Cut" Mish also gives a great email from the president of a small corporation adding his comments too. Now this is worth Tweeting, Mr Roubini:

Dear Mish: I agree with your analysis of the statements by Roubini re: payroll taxes. As a business owner with four employees, I’d welcome them; however, such breaks would not entice me to hire another employee. Have a good day.

Here is Mish's response which is exactly right:

I am quite certain that sentiment represents the vast majority of small business owners. The one thing small business owners need is customers. It's hard to get more customers when government is going to start taking a bigger bite out of everyone's pay check. This is further proof that Congress has those bills ass backwards. But hey, who cares if the economy goes to hell. After all, scoring political points is far more important!

Catch more of Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Is the US Turning Japanese?

Is the U.S. sliding into a long-running Japanese-style deflation?
After two decades Japan still struggles to deal with the deflationary effects of the sustained collapse of its real estate and financial markets in the early-1990s. So much so that China recently bumped Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in GDP terms.
To add to these persistent ongoing worries the yen has been showing unwelcome latest strength against the U.S. dollar. As a result, the once-mighty Tokyo Nikkei stock market index has again pulled back steeply and remains mired far below its peak levels of way back then. Prosperity without growth is not a pretty prospect.
Another mounting worry is of America’s ever-growing reliance on foreign debt to finance a federal deficit currently in the order of $1.5 trillion, or 10% of GDP, and counting.
In March, when I last walked past the National Debt Clock in midtown Manhattan, some one-third of the $12 trillion-plus U.S. Treasury debt (equivalent to almost 80% of GDP) was owned by China ($900 billion), Japan ($800 billion) and other foreign creditors. These holdings might well have been reduced since then. And what if this were the beginning of enough being enough? When do troublesome trends like these stop, and how should they be reversed?

The US and UK Approach to the Economy - which is right?

Worries of a “double dip” recession are not to be taken lightly. And neither the risks associated with unprecedented levels of debt sparked by lifesaving, over-the-top government stimulus and deficits and debts of all types (including household and consumer) that could well have reached dangerous tipping points.
Whereas two years ago the worries centred around the bail-out of banks, financial institutions and enterprises judged too big to be allowed to fail (e.g. “Government Motors”), this year’s focus shifted to the public sector as sovereign debt risk (epitomized by Greece, maybe also Ireland) came to occupy centre stage. And, with it, how the G8 and OECD nations, in other words the developed world, tackle disorders that could have reached explosive proportions.
The dichotomy between the fiscal approaches being taken by the governments of the U.K. and the U.S. couldn’t be greater, the one resolving to tackle its formidable deficit and debt problems head on, the other to keep the spigots open in order not to risk jeopardizing a fragile economic recovery.
Symbolically, David Cameron, the youthful new British Prime Minister, flew commercially on trips to Toronto for the G8/G20 meetings, and to New York to address the UN. From New York he took the train to Washington to meet President Obama. In between, his “accidental” coalition government (The Economist) brought down the harshest kill-or-cure budget in generations. Its aim – to eliminate a record deficit within five years through a combination of severe fiscal tightening (public service cutbacks and pay freezes, et al), higher consumer taxes (e.g. VAT to be raised to 20% from 17.5%), levies on banks, an increased capital gains tax and other private sector measures.
“When we say that we are all in this together, we mean it”, said George Osborne, Britain’s youngest-ever Chancellor of the Exchequer. Echoes of the Thatcher years are unmistakable. Times and circumstances may be different today, but a British “disease” of a different type could be taking hold as a wave of austerity begins rolling across a debt and deficit-heavy Europe. (Mr. Cameron and EU leaders might also like to note how Stephen Harper of Canada has managed to govern effectively for four difficult years with a minority government.)

Business owners need to feel they are in a dynamic market place

Castro says that his economic model is not working too well. He confessed this to an astounded journalist who probed deeper. Castro clarified further that the government took up too big a role. (Trudeau - what did you think when you were swimming in his pool as a guest?)
Business owners definitely need to feel that they are in an exciting economy, not squeezed out by government. Sometimes Canada can slide over to the Castro approach and the UK has been at it for decades, forcing my parents to immigrate.
Although everyone thinks of the UK as Europe's free market laissez-faire poster child, nothing could be further from the truth. Britain is in fact the only major democracy to have flirted with full-scale Soviet communism. 
It is often forgotten that after the war the British government confiscated the assets of most of Britain's industrialists. In 1946 the government nationalised the entire coal industry; that was quickly followed by the State confiscation of the railways, the electricity generating companies, all the country's hospitals, the telephone company, the gas companies, the entire iron and steel industry and all the shipbuilding yards. My grandfather was head of one of the ship building unions that crippled the industry and he was always telling us the business would return. It never did and the skills were lost for ever.
And then in a final coup de theatre the bulk of the country's car industry was also brought into State ownership. 
No other country in Europe embarked on anything like the scale of Britain's experiment with communism, and none experienced such disastrous results. All of the nationalised industries, without exception, fell into a death spiral of inefficient operations, militant unionism, high costs, poor quality, rubbish customer service, abysmal design, zero innovation and and ever greater reliance on subsidies from the taxpayer and protectionism. 
When Margaret Thatcher quite rightly decided to turn off the subsidy tap in the 1980s the industries crumbled. Leftists blame her for destroying British industry but the truth is that it was destroyed by decades of Labour's Clause 4 in action. All Margaret Thatcher did was administer the last rites. 
It's an interesting diversion to wonder what might have happened if the great magnates of British industry had been allowed to keep their businesses in the private sector. Would the exposure to competition and the drive for innovation, efficiency and quality that competition necessitates, have taken British industry in a different direction? Would the Brits today have a million more jobs in manufacturing and be recognised as world leaders in some industries? Would Britain still be mass producing Austins, Triumphs, MGs and Rovers? 
Worrying trends are appearing in the Obama administration's policy discussions and Canada's too. Business owners are telling me they do not want to move their work to China but how can they compete with cheap Chinese products flooding our country? 

Do You Really Want a Job with Private Equity?

Why job hunting at a company partnered with private equity is nothing like you have

experienced before.

Looking for a new job this year?

There are interesting career opportunities being created by owners of

companies who are partnered with private equity. I hire for these unique

businesses and have come to see a huge difference compared to corporate

recruiting.

It may seem choke on your chai tea rude to say businesses with private

equity on board do not care about your career. If you grasp this difference

though, you are more likely to get the job and make them care.

These businesses have owners. The private equity partners are also owners.

Can you put yourself in their shoes and realize how you will impact directly on their personal bank balances?

These owners are self made, ego driven characters. They have been beaten

up; it's no longer business as usual, rules have changed big time. Owners

take risks at major cost to them and their families. Now they are risking it all

again to make the leap to the global market.

Take Guy Ritchie--Madonna's ex-husband or play thing--he knew to leap out

of England, into the international movie scene. (Nothing like scorned love to

make you be creative.) Guy came to terms with losing some control and

partnered with private equity. Even though he managed to pocket a 50

million pound settlement from his missus, his private equity partners raised

$80M to film his meandering, but wryly amusing Sherlock Holmes movie.

With this partnership, Guy was able to bring in talent to appeal to a crowd

not familiar with Stephen Fry, Baker Street or high tea. The scenes between

Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law were the best part of the movie for me,

although I am also rather fond of Rachel McAdams, but preferred her in The

Time Traveller's Wife. Did you know Brad Pitt was the executive producer?

I digress.

And that is exactly what I am talking about - when speaking to private

equity companies, do not go off on tangents, no matter how delightful

and deliciously amusing these may seem. You will appear off target and

plain wasteful.

Keep all conversations (phone calls especially) razor focused on the actions

required on the job within the first six months; why you are the one to do

this urgent and purpose-filled work. The information to get across is your 3

step plan to make the business more money than Brad Pitt could hold above

his head.

Working for owner managed companies is not like the 100 Top Companies

with toaster oven prizes at the monthly beer bash. Owners are anxious for

results, for action, for hefty pushing the wheel up the hill. Leave out

indulgent chats about your recent ski trip, why you can not make a five

o'clock appointment because you have to pick up the kids, how your child

won a scholarship to Ivey, is visiting Nepal, is on drugs or whatever. You

think you are bonding, they are hyper-judging.

If you are from a corporate environment, you will be suspected of having soft hands,

soft soaping your seniors rather than telling the harsh truth and comfortable

calling in consultants rather than rolling up your own sleeves.

Understand that about 150 other people applied, and there are 5 who are a

better fit. Realize that you can leap frog them by knowing this one tip: it is

not about your stupid career, it is about how you would help the company

bring in cash flow.

Companies where private equity is a part owner really, really care. Have

you made a company performance oriented? How did you contribute to the

top line, not the bottom line (and if you don't understand that - call your

favourite business coach.)

Private equity partnered companies work lean but give opportunity to use

brains and skills. Former armed forces people can be found in private equity firms probably because they are used to jumping out of helicopters with people screaming "Go, go, go!" That is the environment. If that does not appeal, go to the Post Office. I hear they have terrific careers.

Jacoline Loewen is a financial consultant to business owners, raises capital to grow the business and is the author of Money Magnet: How to Attract Investors to Your Business.