Worries of a “double dip” recession are not to be taken lightly. And neither the risks associated with unprecedented levels of debt sparked by lifesaving, over-the-top government stimulus and deficits and debts of all types (including household and consumer) that could well have reached dangerous tipping points.
Whereas two years ago the worries centred around the bail-out of banks, financial institutions and enterprises judged too big to be allowed to fail (e.g. “Government Motors”), this year’s focus shifted to the public sector as sovereign debt risk (epitomized by Greece, maybe also Ireland) came to occupy centre stage. And, with it, how the G8 and OECD nations, in other words the developed world, tackle disorders that could have reached explosive proportions.
The dichotomy between the fiscal approaches being taken by the governments of the U.K. and the U.S. couldn’t be greater, the one resolving to tackle its formidable deficit and debt problems head on, the other to keep the spigots open in order not to risk jeopardizing a fragile economic recovery.
Symbolically, David Cameron, the youthful new British Prime Minister, flew commercially on trips to Toronto for the G8/G20 meetings, and to New York to address the UN. From New York he took the train to Washington to meet President Obama. In between, his “accidental” coalition government (The Economist) brought down the harshest kill-or-cure budget in generations. Its aim – to eliminate a record deficit within five years through a combination of severe fiscal tightening (public service cutbacks and pay freezes, et al), higher consumer taxes (e.g. VAT to be raised to 20% from 17.5%), levies on banks, an increased capital gains tax and other private sector measures.
“When we say that we are all in this together, we mean it”, said George Osborne, Britain’s youngest-ever Chancellor of the Exchequer. Echoes of the Thatcher years are unmistakable. Times and circumstances may be different today, but a British “disease” of a different type could be taking hold as a wave of austerity begins rolling across a debt and deficit-heavy Europe. (Mr. Cameron and EU leaders might also like to note how Stephen Harper of Canada has managed to govern effectively for four difficult years with a minority government.)
No comments:
Post a Comment