So, where does the economy go from here?
My views are no better than anyone else’s except to say that this credit crisis and economic downturn has turned out to be vastly more serious than anyone anticipated every step of the way.
Notwithstanding the major stimulus plan currently under consideration in the U.S., I’m not sure why that should change.
Accordingly, I would anticipate a longer and deeper recession than many observers envisage at this time.
I wish I had a more definitive view, but there are just too many unknowns.
The first step to recovery
We need the stabilation of the banking business in the U.S. and the U.K.
At this stage we still don’t know which banks in the U.S. and Europe are going to survive in their present form – or who is going to own them. To date, various initiatives to repair these banks have failed, but a new plan is under consideration in the U.S. and due to be announced in the near future.
If this fails, there’s a real possibility, even a likelihood, that some of these major banks will have to be nationalized or perhaps put in “conservatorship” a la Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Business owners will have to look to other sources of capital, such as private equity. In Money Magnet, there is a chapter on how to find funds and what they like to see.