Private equity may be surprised by America's growth rate

An American Private Equity fund manager told me they are sitting under their desks and rocking back and forward gently, trying to get through this market. I reminded her that the British Empire took about 100 years to decline and the American Empire may be "lite", but the mother land, so to speak, still is a great market. America is still a good place to make money for private equity funds.

China has been attractive for its strong growth and America's growth is being ignored. One exponential non-consensus surprise would be a beleaguered U.S. economy delivering far-stronger post-stimulus GDP growth than expected in 2010.  And maybe even blowing the lights out with an explosive annual growth of 5.0% or better over the next two years, compared with consensus forecasts of 2.5% to 3.5%.

The U.S. has always been an irrepressible economy with impressive resilience.   It remains the undisputed world leader in productivity, in which there is every likelihood of an astounding further recession-induced pick-up.  Helped by a much cheaper dollar, the U.S. is also among the world’s most competitive economies and largest exporters of higher-end goods and services. 

If there are going to be the positive surprises in global economic growth that the IMF and World Bank have begun hinting at, these surprises would more than likely give an added leg-up to an ever-cheaper and more productive America?   I keep thinking of Noel Coward’s ditty: “I like America, America’s OK; I like America, give me the U.S.A.”