Wealth Management

Voted #6 on Top 100 Family Business influencer on Wealth, Legacy, Finance and Investments: Jacoline Loewen My Amazon Authors' page Twitter:@ jacolineloewen Linkedin: Jacoline Loewen Profile

November 2, 2009

We swaggered and rode high but not any more...

Private equity used to be the Gods of the world of finance but that has changed.
Now, the US Government knows better than a Board of Directors and the CEO how much to pay staff. These changes in public attitude and more about the business world are topics of discussion with Tony James, the head of Blackstone, private equity's leading investor over the past decade.
See Video below:
http://www.ft.com/cms/8a38c684-2a26-11dc-9208-000b5df10621.html?_i_referralObject=11076613&fromSearch=n

Jacoline Loewen

October 30, 2009

The next hit to the economy could be private equity debt

The next hit to the economy could come from the debt used by private equity to buy ownership in companies. With cheap debt readily available from the banks, many large private equity firms used leverage as their main tool in their box to grow companies. What this meant was that private equity would put in 20% and use up to 80% of bank debt to build a massive war chest to grow a company's market share by acquisitions, not organic growth.

Do remember that the smaller funds were more into rolling up their sleeves and doing the sweat equity of sales and marketing to find customers and make them very happy, earning revenue and loyalty. Here is the rest of the story about the leverage kings of private equity:

The debt piled on companies amid the decade's $1 trillion buyout boom is coming due. The only question is about the extent of the fallout. The day of reckoning could simply be disruptive for the parties involved, or it could bring down the whole economy in much the same way bad mortgages broke confidence in the credit markets, effectively grinding them to a halt. Witness Hilton Worldwide, a portfolio company of Blackstone Group LP. Like almost every private-equity buyout, Blackstone acquired Hilton by putting down about 20% of the deal price. The rest was financed by borrowing, except Blackstone didn't assume the debt, Hilton did. Now Blackstone is in talks with Hilton's creditors to cut $5 billion from the $20 billion debt load carried by hotel and resort chain. Blackstone may pay down some of the debt at a discount in return for taking a bigger equity stake. (See WSJ story on Hilton.)

Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet and partner in a private equity firm based in Toronto.

October 29, 2009

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October 26, 2009

Private sector credit demand required to grow an economy

"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point, but it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time." Ben Bernanke, September 2009

Green Shoots. What Green Shoots? Even Chairman Bernanke admits that signs that the North American economy has resumed growing are modest at best. In the US the bleak jobs picture shows that job hunters now outnumber openings six to one, the worst ratio since the government began tracking open positions.

A key feature of the Postwar North American economy has been the intimate relationship between credit growth and economic activity. It takes money to finance economic growth. Indeed, by late 2006 the available statistics showed that approximately six dollars of debt was needed to finance every one dollar expansion in the US GNP. The lesson is this: without growth in private sector credit demand, sustainable growth in the real economy cannot be maintained.

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We are in a brave new private equity world

I recently had lunch with an expert in private equity who shared his helicopter view of the Canadian scene. He believes that we may be sitting calmly seeing the markets recover, but there are severe clouds on the horizon. Here are a few of his points - see if you agree:

  • Power has swung from Wall Street to Washington. Government is now where the power lies because business has proven to be dangerous. Between melting down the global economy to Bernie Madoff outrages, business is not seen to be capable of making clear headed decisions.
  • Tax payers’ money is funding auto industry and GM pension funds. The government is setting bankers’ pay. Government believes it is more capable than business experts to run companies.
  • Increased regulation is now a given by government officials. For example, pension Funds in California are being asked to be completely transparent about their investments. Any private equity fund with pension fund money will need to operate like public money. The logic is that it is tax payer money in pension funds and transparency is to be expected.
  • The European private equity associations are developing transparency codes before they are regulated to do so.
  • Government used to be open to how to help business, but that door has slammed shut. Now Government wants legislation and regulation. The same regulation for big business applies for small business and that is too bad if the costs are too onerous.
  • The swing away from America to the East will remove the US $ from being the currency. The dollar will drop to 70c and money will be printed like crazy, boosting inflation. The US dollar will be lower than the Canadian dollar which will rise because of increased demand for raw materials. Companies manufacturing using the Canadian dollar and selling to the US will be pinched.
  • Obama is moving his focus away from Europe to the East. Brand America is broken and this has tremendous consequences for society.
  • Improved technology to hold virtual meetings means that business travel will drop and all industries feeding into travel.

Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet and partner with Loewen & Partners, private equity.