How financial tools destroy your capacity to do things

A recent HBR article from January 2008 Harvard Business Review has a provocative piece by innovation guru Clay Christensen and a couple of colleagues called "Innovation Killers: How financial tools destroy your capacity to do new things." I have the greatest of respect for Clay Christenson who does hit the nail on the head every time with his analysis of business. His critique of the limitations of DCF analysis is applicable to private equity deals, hence my interest.
Since my MBA and time at Deloitte, I have always been skeptical toward financial analysis and the reverence to which it is held.
While DCF analysis has its place, its limitations should be recognized. One problem is that fact that most DCF models are built on status quo assumptions (or growth projections) that don't account for the strategic and competitive curve balls. I would add that there is also the issue of garbage-in, garbage-out: the less you know about what's likely to happen (as is the case with new lines of business), the less reliable the output of your DCF model becomes.
I see the problem to be that instead of acknowledging this limitation, many finance geeks embrace the modeled output as Holy Writ. Besides being a false data crutch, it squeezes out consideration of other "softer" factors (like my favourite - non-quantifiable synergies)that are every bit as worthy of consideration. Pick up my book, Money Magnet, which deals with all of this in far greater detail.

War and Private Equity

Last week, Private Equity Hub's Dan Primack interviewed Michael Bleyzer, CEO of Ukrainian-based private equity firm SigmaBleyzer, to discuss the impact of the conflict in Georgia.  Though Mr. Bleyzer admits that the Georgian market has not drawn much of his interest, he does point out that an aggressive Russia cultivates politically-driven volatility in the large country that remains unattractive to him.  Naturally, he advises to stay away from sectors vulnerable to political or oligarchical influence, (i.e. energy, defense, etc.).  British Petroleum can attest to this, of course.  However, he does mention that though the "Bear" may be winning the fight to expand its regional sphere of influence, this is raising moral considerations for investors when considering to put their money in the country.

These sentiments do contradict reports from big institutional investors, such as Credit Suisse, on Russia (a member of the famous BRIC nations) but it is difficult to argue with a professional that is "in-country", operating in the region, looking to make returns from the best risk/return opportunities.

Private Equity Update

Banks have been in fashion for some time now.  A rare thing.  Papers are filled with glamourous headlines announcing the latest billion dollar "Writedown" or "Loss".   A year ago it was billion dollar "Deals".  It would seem that the bank's cousin, private equity funds, is also suffering from the same bad press.  Many in the newspaper business are assuming that because of the lack of credit, private equity is at a stand-still, licking its wounds from failed projects. This is not true.  

Private Equity's strength is its versatility.  As the banks began shutting the door to LBOs in late 2007 and selling debt at a discount to shore-up some cash, private equity funds abruptly changed course and bought much of that debt, and continues to do so today.  

Currently, some of the most activity is focused on infrastructure.  Around the globe, 71 funds are raising US$90.8 billion to invest specifically in infrastructure, a particularly stable investment with steady cash flows.  Private equity professionals are looking to outmaneuver any market volatility by preparing to support the CAD$150-billion that must be invested over the next 20 years to meet Canada's growing demand for electricity.  

It would seem, then, that the industry of private equity is never so much under attack as it is remobilizing and assessing new fronts of opportunity.  The only thing that is permanent now for these bankers and fund managers is having to cope with being splashed all over the front pages.  If David Rubenstein is any indication, it seems they will be able to adjust to this as well.

Don’t only hire the top students

In a recent article, MacLean’s magazine threw a stone in the waters of education with a story about C students who grow up to become captains of industry (or Presidents of the USA.)
According to the senior president of a top Canadian bank, head-hunting only top students can be limiting. “During my Masters program, the academic superstars loved working on the sheer beauty of a math simulation, but people like that are a better fit in research and can add much more in that role.”
According to John Loewen of Loewen & Partners, "To move beyond the mechanical stage of corporate finance you need to be smart enough to create the product, but you must be able to communicate your ideas to your peers, team manager and larger groups. If you get into a boardroom and freeze in the headlights, then you will stay at the product level. I would much rather hire an interesting, energetic person than have the whole team be top graduates. I look at the drive of the person."
To rise to leadership roles, you need the energy to create a long-term relationship with clients; to get them to reach into their pocket and pay you cash for your technical skills and ideas. This client-cash transaction is the toughest part of business, one that most working Canadians do not do if they work in research, government, marketing or a team supporting the actual rain makers. A cold, naked, money focus is the life blood of a business, yet few can do it. It is done by those with resilience and that means high EQ (emotional intelligence) and as Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet, points out - those with resilience get to raise capital to grow their companies.
The owner of a fund, Richard Wernham, filled his entry level jobs with only the top academic students from universities. After a few years, he noticed a disturbing trend: although these bright sparks could do the complex work assigned, they did not take risks, try fresh ideas or push for change. Without this creative tension the business was not evolving. When the fund owner sat down with his senior team and analyzed the reasons, he threw out their hiring criteria and began again. Sure, they wanted recruits who could handle the technical work but they also needed the self confidence to tackle incoming problems in new ways. The traditional “learner” may not have the inner rebel required to challenge the way things get done.
“The trouble with a top student is that they have bought into the system” says the management guru Tom Peters. “Crazy is the friend of innovation. Your people need to question the boss and speak up.”
Richard Wernham put his money behind his recruiting philosophy by starting a school with the vision of educating children to grow into well rounded, confident adults and leaders of tomorrow. Part of the curriculum is to spend time camping and canoeing in the Canadian North. There, it’s the great equalizer as children step away from the comfort zone of Lululemon identity brands to pitch tents, paddle canoes, swim in murky lakes, swat mosquitoes but most important of all, sharpen up those EQ skills with fellow campers. It is the quintessential Canadian cultural rite of passage – singing songs around camp fires with your mouth full of smores and burnt marshmallow.
Immigrant parents, new to Canada keen to see their children become leaders in Canadian business are strongly advised to pack off their children to summer camp - even the day camps - and watch the growth in their children. They will absorb Canadian values of taking personal risks but with awareness and co-operating within the group, not just working for their own achievement.
So parents concerned that little Jill or Sarah is not number one in the class, take a chill-pill and get her booked into a camp for next summer. Broaden her character and who knows where she will lead.

Are You Being Crowded Out?

Canadian business owners are realizing that the world is indeed flat and that no matter how much they try to ignore other competitors, it is getting tougher, meaner and just not as nice out there.

What to do?

"If you are a business owner," says Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet, "There are so many more options for you. It's not all bad." One of these is to take on private equity partners who can see if your competitive pool is too crowded and it's time to find a new spot. These partners are not just lending you money, they are actually partners too and have an incentive for your to grow the business, not just pay back the loan.