Are we there yet?

A good question - Are we at the bottom?

Looking for the Bottom is a Holy Grail quest that will bamboozle investors without a long term strategic horizon.

Before the markets open today, just a word on market bottoms. 

Some of the most interesting questions in investing are especially appropriate today: “Since you expect more bad news and feel the markets may fall further, isn’t it premature to do any buying? Shouldn’t you wait for the bottom?”

To me, the answer is “no.” We never know when we’re at the bottom. We can pour over past stock charts, and there are a deep pit of these,  and we still will not know what will happen today in the markets. A bottom can only be recognized in retrospect: it was the day before the market started to go up. By definition, we can’t know today whether it’s been reached, since that’s a function of what will happen tomorrow. Thus, “I’m going to wait for the bottom” is an irrational statement.

If you want, you might choose to say, “I’m going to wait until the bottom has been passed and the market has started upward.” That’s more rational. However, number one, you’re saying you’re willing to miss the bottom. And number two, one of the reasons for a market to start to rise is that the sellers’ sense of urgency has abated, and along with it the selling pressure. 

That, in turn, means
 (a) the supply for sale shrinks and 
(b) the buyers’ very buying forces the market upward, as it’s now they who are highly motivated. 

These are the things that make markets rise. So if investors want to buy, they should buy on the way down. That’s when the sellers are feeling the most urgency and the buyers’ buying won’t arrest the downward cascade of security prices.

The old saying goes, “The perfect is the enemy of the good.” Likewise, waiting for the bottom can keep investors from making good purchases. The investor’s goal should be to make a large number of good buys, not just a few perfect ones. 

Follow on Twitter @JacolineLoewen

3 Tips to reduce your portfolio risk

How much do you think about the degree of risk in your portfolio? It's probably not enough. Here's how to think about risk and make portfolio adjustments to increase your odds of success? Here’s a good article on risk and your portfolio. 

If you have an investment adviser, you’ve probably been asked to rate your risk tolerance from one to 10. Or maybe you’ve been questioned about what your actions will be during the next market crash: Will you panic and sell or buy more? 

I don’t know many investors self-aware enough to admit they will indeed engage in panic selling. Likewise, most investors don’t sit around with a pile of cash waiting for a market crash — the last crash was in 2008, so those investors have been waiting a long time. Besides, what did you do during the depths of 2008? Regardless, you’re now 11 years older and in a different place. Evaluating risk tolerance with simple abstract questions is not useful. 

Risk is powerful, but most of us are more accustomed to thinking about returns. Of course returns matter. But we can’t judge our returns without understanding the risk we have taken. Unfortunately, most people don’t have the slightest understanding of risk.

To Test Yourself, Flip a Coin

Here’s my test to start thinking about risk. Imagine all of your money stacked in bills on the desk in front of you. Now you are now looking at the largest stack of bills you have ever seen. We will play a game to determine how your money does over the next 12 months. Your job is to choose between picking up one of two coins: a nickel and a quarter. 

If you choose the nickel, go ahead and flip it in the air. If it lands on heads you will be up 5%. However you will be down 5% if it lands on tails. 

The stakes change if you choose the quarter. If it lands on heads, you will be up an impressive 25%. And tails? Well, you’ll be down 25%. 

With all of your money on the line, which coin do you pick up? And more importantly, what does this tell us?

Read the rest here. 

Cash out of the market now?

Timing the market seems like a good idea but is difficult to execute. I have a close friend who was one of the few people in my network to successfully predict 2008–2009.

However, even during March 2009, the lows for markets at 7.300, he wanted to wait until `further falls`.

Then markets hit 10,000 in 2010. He thought it was a dead cat bounce.

By 2013 or so, he was even more worried. Markets were at 14,000. Record highs! Higher than during 2007–2008.

Surely this was a bubble! Then 16,000, then 18,000. But now Trump was running for election.

Then Trump won!

Surely, now markets would fall incredibly? Then markets hit new highs.

When markets fell 20% or so in December, he finally bought in, but suddenly the reality downed on him.

He got in at 21,000–22,000, a discount of 20%+ compared to where prices were a few months previously, and yes he has made 20%+ in the space of 6 months or so.

Yet he realized something. `I should just have invested from day 1`. He missed out on all those gains, and dividends.

People forget that point as well. Even stagnant markets, give dividends.

Many Seniors Fail This Retirement Income Quiz — Would You?

Senior women are planning their retirement better - Alainnah Robertson

Basic finance is a tough topic that many people fail to learn.  I had a recent conversation with an entrepreneur who sold his trucking company last year for over $20 million.  Despite having spent decades negotiating contracts and also selling his company to a publically traded company, he did not know how to manage his new found wealth.  When he was running his trucking business, it was all about re-investing his money to his business, which was a ravenous fire for cash.

Every day, I meet with entrepreneurs who were terrific at inventory and counting their costs and cash flow needs for the business, but do not have apply this thinking to retirement.

Another former business owner, Alainnah Robertson, says that she ran a business yet did not have the first idea about retirement and managing wealth.  Since she has learnt the concept of not touching her capital, and living off the interest and dividends, her views of retirement have changed to the positive.

Here is a fun quiz to check up on your financial literacy and how to retire at the top of the class!

Link - click here


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