Valuation of Canadian PE deals never reached the heights of their US counterparts - many Canadian sponsors sat on the bench and leverage levels were relatively prudent
- For the most part, there is not widespread acceptance of the "new world" amongst sellers - deals getting done are when sellers are distressed
- Lack of transaction comps post Fall 2007, significantly deteriorating current trading and lack of visibility through 2009 make valuation incredibly difficult - greater emphasis on diligence
- To mitigate valuation concerns, recent transactions have seen a greater emphasis on earn outs and vendor take backs - trend will likely continue
- Most interesting opportunities have a restructuring angle - need to structure for the downside case.
March 6, 2009
CVCA Market Update
Fresh from the CVCA conference last week:
Market Update
PE deal activity has been crippled by significant expectation gaps between buyers and sellers and a lack of financing
- Current baseline LBO structure for a "middle of the fairway" business - EV: 5.0-6.0x EBITDA; Total debt: 2.0-2.5x EBITDA
- Shift towards smaller deals - Larger US sponsors are looking at equity tickets in the region of US$200m
- 2009 has seen positive inflows into leveraged loan and high yield funds marking a potential return to mainstream lending
- Increasing number of GP's are returning LP commitments and/or reworking terms - fundraising market is limited, although there is demand for distressed/turnaround funds
- Increasing number of mid market US sponsors looking North to Canadian carve outs and/or distressed situations
- 2007/2008 funds will make for some of the best vintages given unprecedented buying opportunities
Market Update
PE deal activity has been crippled by significant expectation gaps between buyers and sellers and a lack of financing
- Current baseline LBO structure for a "middle of the fairway" business - EV: 5.0-6.0x EBITDA; Total debt: 2.0-2.5x EBITDA
- Shift towards smaller deals - Larger US sponsors are looking at equity tickets in the region of US$200m
- 2009 has seen positive inflows into leveraged loan and high yield funds marking a potential return to mainstream lending
- Increasing number of GP's are returning LP commitments and/or reworking terms - fundraising market is limited, although there is demand for distressed/turnaround funds
- Increasing number of mid market US sponsors looking North to Canadian carve outs and/or distressed situations
- 2007/2008 funds will make for some of the best vintages given unprecedented buying opportunities
The ongoing global, banking, financial and credit crisis
"What happens to our financial services industry is important to our city, to the Province of Ontario and to Canada," says Jacoline Loewen, author or Money Magnet.
At their latest fiscal year-end, our five major banks had total assets of $2.5 trillion of which almost one trillion was outside of Canada.
In terms of market capitalization the five Canadian banks headquartered in Toronto all rank within the top 35 in the world.
So Toronto is an important banking centre and, if we play our cards right, it’s going to become more so. While Canadian banks have received some shocks from this crisis, on a relative basis they have done well.
Last year total write-offs by financial institutions around the world were in excess of $1 trillion and Canadian banks accounted for less than 1.4% of this total. Canadian banks are in a stronger position than what we see south of the border or in Europe.
At their latest fiscal year-end, our five major banks had total assets of $2.5 trillion of which almost one trillion was outside of Canada.
In terms of market capitalization the five Canadian banks headquartered in Toronto all rank within the top 35 in the world.
So Toronto is an important banking centre and, if we play our cards right, it’s going to become more so. While Canadian banks have received some shocks from this crisis, on a relative basis they have done well.
Last year total write-offs by financial institutions around the world were in excess of $1 trillion and Canadian banks accounted for less than 1.4% of this total. Canadian banks are in a stronger position than what we see south of the border or in Europe.
March 5, 2009
Blackstone cashed out at the right time
FT.com says that
Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet, says, "Blackstone cashed out at just the right time."
This article gives a glimpse of the dilemma facing both US and China with regard to their currencies and the management of growing debt on the US side versus the growing surplus on the Chinese side. The essence of this growing dilemma is highlighted in the following quote:
"US Treasuries are the safe haven; it is the only option," said Mr Luo. "Once you start issuing $1-$2 trillion . . . we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys, but there is nothing much we can do."
Chinese investors are now the biggest foreign holders of US Treasuries with nearly $700bn. In total, foreign investors own about $3,000bn or more than half of all US Treasuries publicly available. The fact that the US is still somewhat considered the only true safe haven would explain why the US Dollar still remains relatively strong against all other major currencies. However, it also shows the precarious situation the US may face in the very near future. In order to continue to be able to find buyers for the growing US debt mountain, something has got to give. If the US$ were to depreciate, foreign investors would need to be incentivized with significantly higher yields on US treasuries.
Inflation will be a debtor's best friend and a creditor's worst nightmare.
the listing of the private equity group could be the turning point inAn interesting dilemma for both China and the U.S.: read here.
financial history; one that will shape the world that emerges
from the current crisis: the moment when China really began to question its deep
financial entanglement with the US.
Jacoline Loewen, author of Money Magnet, says, "Blackstone cashed out at just the right time."
This article gives a glimpse of the dilemma facing both US and China with regard to their currencies and the management of growing debt on the US side versus the growing surplus on the Chinese side. The essence of this growing dilemma is highlighted in the following quote:
"US Treasuries are the safe haven; it is the only option," said Mr Luo. "Once you start issuing $1-$2 trillion . . . we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys, but there is nothing much we can do."
Chinese investors are now the biggest foreign holders of US Treasuries with nearly $700bn. In total, foreign investors own about $3,000bn or more than half of all US Treasuries publicly available. The fact that the US is still somewhat considered the only true safe haven would explain why the US Dollar still remains relatively strong against all other major currencies. However, it also shows the precarious situation the US may face in the very near future. In order to continue to be able to find buyers for the growing US debt mountain, something has got to give. If the US$ were to depreciate, foreign investors would need to be incentivized with significantly higher yields on US treasuries.
Inflation will be a debtor's best friend and a creditor's worst nightmare.
Causes of the Crisis
I don’t think even today that we truly comprehend the incredible magnitude of what has happened, and what is happening, to the global banking and financial business.
With so much government involvement and government ownership of big banks in both the U.S. and the U.K., we won’t know the full impact of all of this for a decade.
The stock market impact has been significant.
- the Standard & Poor’s diversified bank stock index is down 72%
- the financial index is down 76% and
- the insurance composite index is down 72%
The TSX Bank Stock Index is only down 50% - isn’t that wonderful – (we have outperformed).
I am not going to dwell on the causes of this crisis because they have been extensively and well covered in the press.
They include;
- Major public policy failure in the U.S. in the housing area.
- Far too low interest rates and easy credit under Alan Greenspan.
- Failed financial innovation on a massive scale.
- Almost complete regulatory failure in the U.S., U.K. and Europe – it was the age of deregulation.
- Total rating agency failure - - for the tenth time and
- Finally, too much leverage everywhere you look.
You could write a book on each of the above but I think Money Magnet - my latest book - will be one to help business owners understand how to access new money now that the banks are being restructured.
With so much government involvement and government ownership of big banks in both the U.S. and the U.K., we won’t know the full impact of all of this for a decade.
The stock market impact has been significant.
- the Standard & Poor’s diversified bank stock index is down 72%
- the financial index is down 76% and
- the insurance composite index is down 72%
The TSX Bank Stock Index is only down 50% - isn’t that wonderful – (we have outperformed).
I am not going to dwell on the causes of this crisis because they have been extensively and well covered in the press.
They include;
- Major public policy failure in the U.S. in the housing area.
- Far too low interest rates and easy credit under Alan Greenspan.
- Failed financial innovation on a massive scale.
- Almost complete regulatory failure in the U.S., U.K. and Europe – it was the age of deregulation.
- Total rating agency failure - - for the tenth time and
- Finally, too much leverage everywhere you look.
You could write a book on each of the above but I think Money Magnet - my latest book - will be one to help business owners understand how to access new money now that the banks are being restructured.
March 4, 2009
Succession Planning Family Business is a Nightmare on Elm Street
Our guest blogger is Tom Deans author of Every Family's Business.
If so many jobs, so much wealth wasn't collateral damage when a family business is gifted, watching them pass to the next generation would continue for some to be the best theatre ticket in town.
But lenders and their shareholders aren't laughing as the single largest generational transfer of wealth begins in less than ideal economic circumstances.
If the questions that a family can ask themselves to protect their wealth weren't so simple, the impending destruction of so much wealth wouldn't be so sad.
On this point there is no debate -- at least not for me. Having watched three generations of my family start and sell their businesses instead of gifting them, the next generation has always been free to pursue their own great big idea.
Tom Deans, Author, Every Family's Business: 12 Common Sense Questions to Protect Your Wealth. www.ProtectingFamilyBusinessWealth.com
If so many jobs, so much wealth wasn't collateral damage when a family business is gifted, watching them pass to the next generation would continue for some to be the best theatre ticket in town.
But lenders and their shareholders aren't laughing as the single largest generational transfer of wealth begins in less than ideal economic circumstances.
If the questions that a family can ask themselves to protect their wealth weren't so simple, the impending destruction of so much wealth wouldn't be so sad.
On this point there is no debate -- at least not for me. Having watched three generations of my family start and sell their businesses instead of gifting them, the next generation has always been free to pursue their own great big idea.
Tom Deans, Author, Every Family's Business: 12 Common Sense Questions to Protect Your Wealth. www.ProtectingFamilyBusinessWealth.com
March 2, 2009
Does a Family Business Mess up the Next Generation?
Our guest blogger is Tom Deans, Author of Every Family's Business.
Founders who gaze upward and utter the phrase "(insert company name) will always be family owned" are either delusional, narcissistic, or neither and just really get a charge out of messing with the heads of their children who lust for stuff -- free stuff.
I think most founders know that the businesses they gift are anything but easy to receive --are anything but easy to operate and sell.
The founders who gift businesses may indeed dish out what junior really deserves.
The profile of the spendthrift child with no discernible work ethic is well documented in popular culture and usually on display in Toronto at the Four Seasons in Yorkville most afternoons.
Tom Deans, Author, Every Family's Business: 12 Common Sense Questions to Protect Your Wealth. www.ProtectingFamilyBusinessWealth.com
Founders who gaze upward and utter the phrase "(insert company name) will always be family owned" are either delusional, narcissistic, or neither and just really get a charge out of messing with the heads of their children who lust for stuff -- free stuff.
I think most founders know that the businesses they gift are anything but easy to receive --are anything but easy to operate and sell.
The founders who gift businesses may indeed dish out what junior really deserves.
The profile of the spendthrift child with no discernible work ethic is well documented in popular culture and usually on display in Toronto at the Four Seasons in Yorkville most afternoons.
Tom Deans, Author, Every Family's Business: 12 Common Sense Questions to Protect Your Wealth. www.ProtectingFamilyBusinessWealth.com
March 1, 2009
Sell Your Family Business, Don't Gift It
Our Guest Blogger is Tom Deans, author of Every Family's Business:
So if gifting is out selling is in.
But with more sellers than buyers the inclination of throngs of aging business owners will be to wait out this down cyle and sell the business later when they are really ready to retire --you know when they are in their 80's and junior is hitting his prime in his 60's.
Truth be known little in the way of succession planning has ever been done to transfer businesses intelligently.
The script usually unfolds with the business owner dying and the stock rolling to the surviving spouse. It's like a bad movie-- it's Friday the 13th but with more family drama and bloodletting --especially when you roll in some sibling rivalry, add a dash of liquidity crisis family business style when the taxman comes knocking to collect capital gains or estate taxes.To all the founders reading this --here's my message. Offer to sell your business to your kids. If they don't want to buy it, put in place a compensation package for them to help you sell it to someone else. I know that selling the family business can feel like selling family but nothing could be further than the truth when a founder aligns the economic interest of all family members. I have a sneaky feeling that when parents put in place these compensation plans for their children, the love of pursuing the longevity of their family firm will fizzle and fizzle fast (the bigger the comp package the faster the fizzle).
Tom Deans, Author, Every Family's Business: 12 Common Sense Questions to Protect Your Wealth. www.ProtectingFamilyBusinessWealth.com
So if gifting is out selling is in.
But with more sellers than buyers the inclination of throngs of aging business owners will be to wait out this down cyle and sell the business later when they are really ready to retire --you know when they are in their 80's and junior is hitting his prime in his 60's.
Truth be known little in the way of succession planning has ever been done to transfer businesses intelligently.
The script usually unfolds with the business owner dying and the stock rolling to the surviving spouse. It's like a bad movie-- it's Friday the 13th but with more family drama and bloodletting --especially when you roll in some sibling rivalry, add a dash of liquidity crisis family business style when the taxman comes knocking to collect capital gains or estate taxes.To all the founders reading this --here's my message. Offer to sell your business to your kids. If they don't want to buy it, put in place a compensation package for them to help you sell it to someone else. I know that selling the family business can feel like selling family but nothing could be further than the truth when a founder aligns the economic interest of all family members. I have a sneaky feeling that when parents put in place these compensation plans for their children, the love of pursuing the longevity of their family firm will fizzle and fizzle fast (the bigger the comp package the faster the fizzle).
Tom Deans, Author, Every Family's Business: 12 Common Sense Questions to Protect Your Wealth. www.ProtectingFamilyBusinessWealth.com
February 28, 2009
The Next Crisis - Family Businesses
Our guest blogger this week is Tom Deans, author of Every Family's Business:
It occurred to me that the sub-prime and resulting liquidity crisis is nothing compared to the much bigger bomb ticking away in family businesses big and small.
My prediction is that if the banks don't begin to press harder for evidence of real succession plans, the $10 trillion sitting in the retained earning of North American family businesses will dissappear faster than you can say Lehmann Brothers sell Lollipops by the Sea Shore.
When I say "real succession plans" I mean evidence that gifting the family business to junior isn't the plan. Gifting an operating business to dis-interested, ill-prepared, incapable hands of family is not going to cut it with lenders, shareholders, customers or employees.
by Tom Deans, Author, Every Family's Business: 12 Common Sense Questions to Protect Your Wealth. www.ProtectingFamilyBusinessWealth.com
It occurred to me that the sub-prime and resulting liquidity crisis is nothing compared to the much bigger bomb ticking away in family businesses big and small.
My prediction is that if the banks don't begin to press harder for evidence of real succession plans, the $10 trillion sitting in the retained earning of North American family businesses will dissappear faster than you can say Lehmann Brothers sell Lollipops by the Sea Shore.
When I say "real succession plans" I mean evidence that gifting the family business to junior isn't the plan. Gifting an operating business to dis-interested, ill-prepared, incapable hands of family is not going to cut it with lenders, shareholders, customers or employees.
by Tom Deans, Author, Every Family's Business: 12 Common Sense Questions to Protect Your Wealth. www.ProtectingFamilyBusinessWealth.com
February 25, 2009
Creative capitalism means private equity
Bill Gates is frustrated. He spoke about world poverty publicly with Warren Buffet at the last Davos conference and the conversation is now to be found in a book, but with the addition of economists weighing in with their views on the subject which makes for interesting reading.The book has a cumbersome title: Creative Capitalism: a conversation with Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and other economic leaders.
Gates and Buffet both spoke about creative capitalism which means companies that are not just working for their own dime but think far wider than that. For example, I did a project in South Africa for the largest mining company creating a data base of one person “businesses” near to the mines. The mine then hired these people on contract basis for cleaning, typing or temping services in order to support the community through work, not a hand out. People had purpose and money for work. The mine did not need to work in this more fragmented and unpredictable way, but they wanted to help the community.
One if the contributors, Larry Summers, is now an advisor to Obama who cautions this concept of creative capitalism and prefers to let companies pursue their own purpose. Summers cites Fannie Mae and Fannie Mac as a “really good creative capitalism idea” that did not work.
Perhaps Gates and Buffet are onto something says Economist Paul Ormerod who sees creative capitalism as buttressing the legitimacy of democratic capitalism against authoritarianism in China. Private equity is trying to improve its image and are early up-takers of this concept.
Creative is the second name for most Americans. Already, there have been thousands of get-togethers held across America to discuss the health care situation. Obama’s website gave a few starter discussion sheets and suggestions on how to organize each party. The answers to questions were sent back to the White House. There are naysayers, likening this movement to Tupperware parties, but people could add their own material and speakers.
Gates and Buffet both spoke about creative capitalism which means companies that are not just working for their own dime but think far wider than that. For example, I did a project in South Africa for the largest mining company creating a data base of one person “businesses” near to the mines. The mine then hired these people on contract basis for cleaning, typing or temping services in order to support the community through work, not a hand out. People had purpose and money for work. The mine did not need to work in this more fragmented and unpredictable way, but they wanted to help the community.
One if the contributors, Larry Summers, is now an advisor to Obama who cautions this concept of creative capitalism and prefers to let companies pursue their own purpose. Summers cites Fannie Mae and Fannie Mac as a “really good creative capitalism idea” that did not work.
Perhaps Gates and Buffet are onto something says Economist Paul Ormerod who sees creative capitalism as buttressing the legitimacy of democratic capitalism against authoritarianism in China. Private equity is trying to improve its image and are early up-takers of this concept.
Creative is the second name for most Americans. Already, there have been thousands of get-togethers held across America to discuss the health care situation. Obama’s website gave a few starter discussion sheets and suggestions on how to organize each party. The answers to questions were sent back to the White House. There are naysayers, likening this movement to Tupperware parties, but people could add their own material and speakers.
Anyway, what's wrong with Tupperware parties? I see citizens getting involved with their country.
Discussion educates and encourages people to see more than one side. Creative capitalism certainly creates integrity and Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have started this interesting conversation.
Discussion educates and encourages people to see more than one side. Creative capitalism certainly creates integrity and Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have started this interesting conversation.
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